Thursday, May 02, 2013

 As forecasted , heavy thundershowers West of Bangalore on Friday evening. Heavy rains in Tumkur, Tiptur and Arsikere.. Heavy rains are seen in Channarayapattana also...
West Bangalore areas like Vijayanagar and Yashwanthpura can get showers too. 


                                          Weatherunderground..Late Friday evening Sat image


The SE winds in the Eastern Sector (Bay) have now picked up, and are rushing towards the equator.
 

As predicted, after 1st May, the fairly strong MJO phase moves Eastwards, and fortunately gains in strength.
Consequently, the ICTZ (the Eastern part), has hastened its Northward movement, and aligned itself with the Equator on the 2nd of May.
The winds are moisture laden and rushing from the SW into the Southern most Bay off Sumatra.
 

The formation of a Low ( BB-1) in the Southern Bay is possible around the 7th of May. Low is initially likely to strengthen a bit and move from off the Eastern Coast of Sri Lanka in a NE direction.
This pre Monsoon Low (when formed) is long overdue.

I notice the Jet Streams at 200 hpa also ready to take a distinctive Easterly turn early next week. If it coincides with the formation of the low, monitoring the low will be interesting.

The Southern Hemisphere Low has moved W/SW. It is keeping the ITCZ at 5S in the Western Sector.


 Friday heavy showers likely in Interior Karnataka and Kerala. Bangalore can get the thundershower. Regions West of Bangalore to get heavy showers on Friday..
NE states will be again in for thundershowers.
Shall put up the weekend forecast on Friday..

 How some cities fared in April..Hot or Normal ?...See Current Weather Page

Stat & Analysis Page  (from Rohit)

11 comments:

ugaap said...

Another Low will develop over 5 S. around 7th May and move Westwards

sam khan said...

Currently looks like the delayed low which is likely to form in the bay very soon in the following week, may track in a westerly direction

Vijayanand said...

Friday heavy showers likely in Interior Karnataka and Kerala. Bangalore can get the thundershower. Regions West of Bangalore to get heavy showers on Friday..
NE states will be again in for thundershowers.

Thanks Rajesh sir. Good to hear. Hope to god we get the much delayed rains.

Vijayanand said...

TS cells developing North and East of bangalore. Good chance of rain.

rajesh said...

Huge Thunder clouds East/SE of Bangalore, about 50 kms away..and 150 kms West of city...Friday 4 pm IST

Vijayanand said...

Hope the TS does not slip south of the city. City is burning hot. Only decent rains can make it bearable.

Vijayanand said...

As feared clouds have slid south of bangalore. Appears like its raining heavily in krisnagiri , dharmapuri and kanakapura.

keaweather said...

As per current forecasts, this low is expected to strengthen into Cyclone Mahasen.

Vijayanand said...

Cyclone formation alert over Bay of Bengal continues:

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/cyclone-formation-alert-over-bay-of-bengal-continues/article4108258.ece

shankar kiran said...

yes rajesh sir u were spot western bangalore got battered...i was there near peenya ...it rained nearly one hour and rainfall rate was unbelieveable..easily 60-70mm in just one hour there i think....now lots of lightning over north of bangalore

naveen123 said...

as per the kerala folklore monsoon predictions the southwest monsoon will give ample rains so lets wait for the low to bring fortune...