Sunday, March 03, 2013


Highest in India on Monday 4th March:..40c still eluding..
Ratnagiri: 39.2c, followed by Mumbai SCruz at 39.0c and then Surat at 38.6c...Mumbai outer townships around 38c as expected.
Hottest in Asia was in Myanmar, Nyaung at 41.0c...

Surat heated up as expected in vagaries' forecast yesterday, almost touching the 39c predicted. However Mumbai Scruz was again at 39c and vagaries rose to 36.6c...expecting a rise in the Mumbai minimum by 2/3c tonite, thus reducing the day/night difference....



See note on this rise i temps on Mumbai Page of this blog...


With a high pressure dominating the North-Central regions of India, we cannot expect much from the precipitation side.
Showers could be expected in the region South of the 12N line in the Southern Karnataka and adjoining AP.. Reading as rain showers for Chennai and Bangalore on Tuesday 5th March and Wednesday 6th March.

Mumbai Scruz saw a high of 39.1c on Sunday, and Ratnagiri almost touched its all time high by reaching 39.5c on Sunday (all time high 39.6c)...and was the hottest in India.

Mumbai Scruz saw its highest day/night variation of 22.9c..

Mumbai Scruz: Monday and Tuesday may see a nominal fall from the 39c levels. The W/NW winds may set in a bit earlier and the effctive heat build up could fall by 1/2 c. Days could be around 37c and nights rising a bit to 18/19c. 

Wednesday: Charts show the high pressure moving East and expanding. If this happens, Mumbai SCruz may rise again by a couple of degrees to 38/39c.
Outer townships may be around 37/38c next 2 days and may increase for a day on Wednesday.

Goa could be in line with Scruz temperature wise.

Pune...placed in the 37- 15c range these next 3 days.

However, it will not be the same formula for Surat: We can see Surat heating up more from Monday 4th thru Wednesday 6th March. Won't be surprised to see Surat reading 39/40c. 

Bharuch too in for some severe heat next 3 days.

New Delhi: Next 3/4 day, Dry and NW winds will keep the temperature in the 28-14/15c range, while Kolkata will be sunny and rising gradually to reach 35c by Wed/Thursday.


M-1 after 10th March..


In Pakistan, heat will gradually set in from Sindh next week. Karachi may reach 36c by Wednesday and Hyderabad 37c. Hotspot in Sindh may reach 40c by Thursday 7th. 


16 comments:

Atul Naik said...

Excellent analysis and explanation for the Ides of March, Rajeshbhai! Thanks a lot!

Ron said...

Wow...39C...my god that is hot...

sam khan said...

afternoon temp 39-40 and morning temp 15-17, very extreme climate in mumbai and surrounding towns

sam khan said...

today nasik is cooler then delhi, nasik is 11 degree and delhi 14 degree.

emkay said...

Rajesh Bhai, Refer your last line on Mumbai page - But, a repeat of a similar occurance in March would restrain me from announcing a timely arrival of the SWM..

Could you clarify - Are you predicting the Discontinuity phenomenon expected in April to happen in March ? A bit confused !!

rajesh said...

Mumbai: March 3rd Morning Temp was 16.2 and day was 39.1c..variation works out to 22.9c for 24 hrs ended 5.30pm.
Next morning saw a low of 15.6c (4th March 2013) so variation now becomes 23.5c for 24 hrs ended 8.30 am (4th morning).

sset:another heat wave in March and i would hesitate to announce a timely arrival of the SWM..in all probability, that would cause thundershowers around early Aoril, and would celay the formation of the seasonal low in April as heat would be restricted and could be less..a cooler April may not be that favourable...thats long term ,lets see..

Pune sees 9.9c Monday morning ...

emkay said...

But seems Kerala would dearly love some showers early April, water scarcity is pinching

Amit said...

Hi Rajesh,

Unusual weather in Nagpur Max 36 and Min 10.5 yesterday!!!.
Amit,
Nagpur

sam khan said...

Most of Maharahtra is facing this type of extreme weather at the moment, max high is 35-40 degrees lows between 9-15degrees.

sam khan said...

Too early to predict south west monsoon, long way to go

Abhijit said...

Today max temp of Badlapur is 38.3c at
3.15pm. So further raised by 0.6c compare
to yesterday. Today continous rotating SE/
E/NE winds here. So today temp difference of 23c here
between max & min temp as 38.3c / 15.3c

rajesh said...

today Monday Satara range difference 26.1c... max 38.5c (+4.5c) - 12.4c (-4.6c) ...

sset said...

Rajesh Sir - your explaination about Mumbai temperature difference was very good. Request you to publish such scientific explainations in all news-papers (times,business standards,FT,express..). Your MW forcasts are good with maps this needs to be daily published.

Meanwhile south ciculation was failure. Did not produce even single drop of rain over BANG (2012 city with lowest rain) and rest south.

Wonder people in blog are worried over Mumbai (this is quite usual for few days - MAR/APR). Beauty is- once mumbai rain starts same people will pray for sun to come out soon!!!!!

Rajesh do u forsee any cyclonic strom over bay (MAR/APR/MAY) which can atleast bring rain over south??

Thanks

Atul Naik said...

Today morning cirrus clouds covering the sky, first time after a spell of days of clear skies!........Atul, Goa

Abhijit said...

Today min temp of Badlapur is 15c at 7am.
So further drop by 0.3c compare to
yesterday. So now difference is of 23.3c here as 38.3c
yesterday max & 15c today's min temp. Haha. Day by day max rised from 37c to
38.3c range & min fall from 17c to 15c
range here.

Abhijit said...

Today max temp of Badlapur is 38.5c at
3.15pm. So further raised by 0.2c compare
to yesterday. So now new difference is 23.5c here between
max & min temp for today. As 38.5c / 15c
for today