Friday, January 18, 2013

As promised, an eventful J-3. (See video here)

Good precipitation in the Northern hills and plains, and lived up to the expectations of rains along Sindh coast (Karachi), Western Gujarat and Kutch, into Rajasthan.(The NE line as expalined last week).The induced low over Rajasthan did the trick. 
For the Northern plains, (Delhi included), precipitation will decrease by Friday evening...Thick fog on 20th morning.

Now, J-3 estimated to move into Nepal on 19th Saturday, with heavy precipitation in Utterakhand and adjoining Nepal.
Kathmandu will get showers on 19th Saturday and 20th Sunday.

Entire India and Pakistan region will get a 2 day "rain break" from 20th Sunday, i.e. 20th and 21st.

But, the cold NW winds will take over from 18th Friday, as the temperatures start dropping.

The Gujarat, Maharashtra and MP regions will feel the drop from 18th Friday night.

Maharstra and Gujarat: Next 2 nights only: 
Remember, cold wave will not affect South wards of Goa/Karnataka region as explained in previous article.

Expected drop in Gujarat will be by about 2/3c from last nights level. Kutch expected to drop to below 7c by 20th Sunday. Surat drops to 11/12c ..valid next Friday and Saturday nights only.

In Maharashtra, next 2 nights, Pune and Nasik will drop to 7/8c.

Mumbai, clouds break up as forecasted, and temperature levels will be 10/11c at Scruz and 14/15c at Colaba on Saturday/Sunday morning. 

Aurangabad will fall to about 9/10c and Nagpur will drop to 8c till Sunday.

North sees thick fog on 20th morning..
Northern plains of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan and Delhi NCR sees a fall in night temperatures from 19th Saturday thru 22nd Tuesday. We expect a fall of 3/4c in the plains, with Delhi NCR also falling at night to 4/5c...cold spell in North lasts till 22nd Tuesday at least. Reason: North winds will dominate the entire Northern region.

But, Maharashtra and Gujarat, see a revisit of heat again from 20th Sunday night. 
Konkan (including Mumbai) days rise to 33/34c from 21st Monday, and again Surat goes over 31c...
but from 21st Monday though interior Maharasthra (Pune Nasik, Nagpur) remains within 30c in the day., night temperatures show a rise.

If the resultant rise does take place, we can expect an UAC to form in the Marathwada/Vidharbha region by 22nd Tuesday (cloud formation will indicate this)...if formed, may persist in region for a couple of days.

J-4, dont discuss till 26th Jan...


Neeraj said...

Its raining. and cold wave is following at least for a few days. Though, till this moment, it does not feel colder than normal (11:30 PM, 18 Jan & Temp around 8 C )-- here in Kathmandu.

Avtansh said...

Hi Rajesh, I've been following Dharamsala weather for some time now and have noted consistent discrepancy between the IMD readings ( the International weather website readings ( Eng-Ind ODI is scheduled there on 27th Jan and there is a lot of talk (most of it going by forecasts of international weather websites) that the match will be played in sub-zero temperatures.
But IMD data shows the normal temps as 20/6 for January.
Can you please clarify what, in your opinion, is the likely correct reading/forecast?

Rajesh said...

Avtansh: well, now its rained a lot last 2 days in Dharasala, and the current temps are 12 and 4c..the nights will now cool down as the skies clear, but temps by 27th will rise again..and if there is a WD, even a weak one, it can get cloudy there. So, as yet, i think dharamsala will be between 14 and 8c on 27th..difficult for exact from now..will keep posting on vagaries regularly..and keep the comments coming from your side..

Avtansh said...

Thanks, Rajesh. I have linked to this comment on Twitter here:
Also, from the Twitter discussion, a relevant blog:

Ron said...

rajesh sir...Hearty congratulations on your article on TOI today...

Rajiv Kumar said...

Congrats to Rajesh Sir for TOI article:

Posted 27th January  The first  Low (BB 1) from the Bay..forming today. The simultaneous W.D. will prevail in the Northern Regions. So, BB ...