Saturday, February 18, 2012

Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast for  the  week 19th Feb to 26th February.

1.   F-3 is taking its own time in developing, due to poor incursion and adverse winds. It will cover Northern Pakistan and North Indian states of Kashmir and H.P. by Sunday. Sunday/Monday will get moderate precipitation to Northern Pakistan and North Indian States of Kashmir and H.P.
But, F-3 will gain more depth on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves Eastwards into India. Vertical vortex will be around -60 by Wednesday. It should precipitate heavy snow/rain in Kashmir/H.P. and Uttaranchal on Tuesday thru Thursday.The strengthened system will bring some rain to Punjab and Haryana on Tuesday and Wednesday.
System moves away from India from Thursday

2.   F-3 has lingered on in the region for almost 4/5 days. This creates a trough slanting eastwards into Nepal. As a result, clouding and moderate rain likely from Tuesday (western Nepal) and spreading to central Nepal on Wednesday.

3.  Weather dry over the sub-continent below 30N line.

City Forecasts:

Mumbai: Mumbai day temperature saw 34c again on Saturday (mentioned in last weekly forecast) due to changes in the wind direction (to NE).With a high pressure forming quickly over the Arabian Sea off Mumbai, we can expect the winds to revert back to N from Sunday evening,and Monday will be NW winds blowing over the city.
Sunday 19th: (S’Cruz) temperatures: 32c and 18c.
Monday 20th: 30c and Monday morning low will be 17/18c. Very windy (NW) in the evening.
Tuesday 21st and Wednesday 22nd: 29c and low in the morning will be 15/16c.

Pune: Temperatures are warm now in the day at 34c.
Sunday19th thru Wednesday 22nd : Days will be warm in the 33/34c range. And Nights,currently at 12c, will warm up to 14c.
Wednesday 22nd: Nights falling back to 12c.

Delhi:
Sunday Thru Tuesday: Partly cloudy days falling a bit to 21/22c, but nights rising to 11/12c.
Tuesday 21st: Cloudy.Temp 21c.
Wednesday/Thursday: Clear Nights falling from 12c to 9/10c.

Surat will see a fall in temperatures from Wednesday, both day and night. Night could be around 14c on Wed 22nd.

Bharuch: 
Sunday 19th: Warm with temperature around 32c.
Monday 20th: Nw winds will cool down the day to 30c, and
Tuesday will be very windy with fall in night temperatures on Wed/Thursday.

Karachi:
Sunday: Slight rise in temps.
Monday20th thru Wednesday 22nd:As a high forms in the Arabian Sea,very windy conditions will prevail in Karachi, winds from the west will be gusty.Day and night range will be 25c and 11c.
Some clouding on Tuesday.
Winds changing to N direction will drop the night temperature down on Wednesday to 8/9c again. Rise in temps from Thursday.

Sukkur:
Sunday and Monday: Slight rise in temps.
Temps will fall from Tuesday thru Thursday.

Kathmandu:
Sunday/Monday: Warm with day /night range between 25c and 8c.
Tuesday/Wednesday:  cloudy with light rains. Temps will be in the 21/22c and 10c range. Fall thereafter for a couple of days.

Dubai will be cloudy on Sunday. Monday will see dust raising winds (Westerly) blowing sand over the city.Temperatures dropping from Tuesday.Could drop to 15c on Wednesday morning.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Turbulence this week! Satyen

Ameya said...

Well weather bureau predicts record tempartures of 37-38 deg for MONDAY TUESDAY not sure if it would fall to 32-30 deg? Any updates. The weekend was horrible heat in Mumbai just that it was dry. Winters over???

Anonymous said...

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/article2910499.ece

Hi Rajesh,

for your reading, this is the second weather agency which is predicting less the normal monsoon.

Regards, Ananth

rajesh said...

Ameya: Vagaries'estimated around 32c, but went up to 36c ! But reason is as given, due to strong E/NE winds, which were expected.And the low was somewhat near the visualised 18c. Now, I think, I'll remain with my forecast, and hopefully, the wind changes to NW from evening as anticipated. Satyen: Please let me know if tuesday bcomes windy. Ananth: Thanks for the clipping. on

emkay said...

Chennai got fogged out unusually today morning with dip in temperatures, leading to flight disruptions. with easterlies how did this phenomenon occur ?

Anonymous said...

Na - Tuesday wasn't any more windy than normal - & it's pretty stuffy this time of the night too. - Satyen

Jiggy said...

Partly cloudy in Dubai yesterday, with dipping evening/night temps.