Sunday, February 12, 2012

Vagaries'Sunday Weekly Forecast for the week 12th Feb to 19th February.

1. F-2 moves into the Sub-Continent onSaturday, 11th Feb. System will precipitate rain/snow in the Northern regions of the sub-continent till Monday. In the process, precipitation will also occur in the Northern plains of Pakistan and the Indian states of Punjab,Haryana and some light drizzle in Delhi on Monday, 13th. Gusty NW winds on Sunday/Monday will cool down the days in Saurashtra region of Gujarat.

F-2 moves into  western Nepal on Tuesday 14th, and will be effective till Wednesday,15th. Kathmandu gets rains on Tuesday and Wednesday, cooling the temperatures again. Sikkim and Northern W.Bengal gets good rainfall on 16th

2a) The UAC, over N.I. Karnataka moves NE into S.Mah and thru Vid on Sunday/Monday. Dissolves over Chattisgarh by Tuesday, but pushes a pulse eastwards into Orissa and Kolkata region.
  b) a secondary low forms over Orissa/South W.Bengal on Thursday 16th and Friday 17th

3. During the Sunday 12th-Tuesday 14th period, day temeratures will be slightly below normal in the North. Delhi should be around 21c.
Nights are expected to get cooler by 3/5c from Tuesday, 14th,  night in the plains of Pakistan, including Sindh.
Nights will get cooler by 3/5c in NW India, Punjab,Haryana, west U.P, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Mah.from Tuesday night (14th).
Places in Punjab and Rajasthan may fall to 1c.

4. Next W.D, F-3 is most probably due over Pakistan around Sunday, 18th Feb.

City Forecasts for the Week:

Mumbai: S'Cruz, at 36c on Saturday, was the hottest in Asia for the day (with 7 other citeis also at 36c). Colaba recorded 34c on Saturday. Thats the yo-yoing I was mentioning ! 30c on Friday, 36c on Saturday, with the low at 18c, it was a range of 18c during the day. 

Would like to mention that vagaries had mentioned in the weekly forecast last Sunday -Quote " And Saturday 11th in particular, will be hot, at 34/35c, with East winds dominating."
and Quote again -  "Dryness will be felt as the humidity may drop to 25-30%." and Mumbai saw low humiditiy of 15-20 % on Thursday.

City will see a moderate fall to 31c on Sunday. With N/NW winds settling from Monday, the day/night temperatures will show a drop from Monday  thru Thursday. Sunday thru Tuesday between 30c and 19c. Wed/Thurs between 28c and 16c.
East winds may possibly re-appear again on Saturday, meaning a rise in day temperatures.

Pune: With S winds, should remain warm with the day at 32c. after Wednesday, drop will be seen in the nights to around 8/9c.

Delhi: cloudy Sunday thru Tuesday, with gusty winds on Sunday, and a drizzle on Monday. Days will be 20c Sunday thru Tuesday. Fall in night temperature from Tuesday night, with the low going down to 7c by Thursday.

Nagpur: The UAC moves across Vid and dissolves by Monday. Hence clouding and light rains expected in NGP on Monday. S to Se winds will dominate most of the week after Tuesday, a gradual rise in day/night temperature in the city during the week. May reach 32/33c by Friday. Nights should drop after the rains.

Kolkata: Currently a high pressure dominates the Northern areas of the Eastern Coast. The city will be clear and in the current range of temps (26-13c) prevails till Wednesday. 
Wed night will be misty and smoggy. 
From Thursday, as a secondary low forms (1006 mb), it will be cloudy, but will show a rise in day/night temperatures.Wed/Thurs temperatures will rise by 2//3c above the 26-13c range.  
Rainfall is expected on Friday.

Karachi/Sukkar: No effect of precipitation of F-2, but Karachi sees drop in day and night temperatures from Monday, due to windy conditions (N/NW). With a drop in humidity,the temperaturechanges  From current range of 26c-10c to 22c- 8c in Karachi. Sukkar could drop to 6c on Wednesday, and days will be cooler till Wednesday.
Interior Sindh may cool down to 1c on Tuesday/Wed.

If modifications or corrections are needed as the week progresses, vagaries will up date it. (Hope its not required -:))

Last week's Weekly forecast put up on Sunday last had 2 points correct.Point 3. of no W.D. was slightly off the mark, as F-2 arrived on Saturday. Forecast was 90% accurate.
Please keep posting your local weather for correct assesment . Check Current Weather Page on Vagaries for your cities' current temperature.

City Feedbacks on the weekly forecast are lacking from Kolkata.


junaid said...

@rajesh i am confused whether to post updates of panvel town or not!!!!:) its proximity to mumbai makes everyone thnk tht its weather is identical to mumbai(santacruz) but i dnt thnk that panvel wud have touched 36 on sat!!!! The day although warm wasnt tht oppressive!!! May be it wud be 32-33 c :),,,,,,,i am just enjoying ths pleasant weather ,,,,i hope it doesnt ends soon,,,btw the day at pnvl was very pleasant today with strong north west winds and i also noticed an increase in humidity!!!when do u thnk winter will end completely in mumbai ,,,,i mean wen tht horrible flip flops occur during the transitional period of dry to humid weather?????luking forwaed to enjoy pleasant weather tomorow as its mah brthday:):);:)

Rajesh said...

Many Happy Returns of the Day, Junaid..and may you really have a great Day with the best of the Weather today !!

junaid said...

Thanx a lott for ur wishes Rajesh:):)

Neeraj said...

Rain for Kathmandu on Tues and Wed; on the way now? It will certainly be cold if it rains; just like the last week.

And one good thing is, the winter is not yet ending here , no heat and humidity as yet; at least for one more month.

Rajesh said...

Noticed certain views and comments very similar and coinciding with vagaries' are reflected in the TOI recently.
Maybe a coincidence, but creates a mature and professional image of your blog..Vagaries.

Rajesh said...

junaid: Hope u had a great day. Keep posting details of Panvel..dont hesitate..unofficially i learnt that Panvel was 34c on Sat..inland temps are a bit lower when winds are easterly..

Anonymous said...


the tone and verbatim in TOI report is not a coincidence. However, copy is the best form of flattery.....


junaid said...

rajesh:yes i had an awsum day:)!!will keep posting abt panvel weather!!!also the weather was great yestrday!!! I hope this weather doesnt end soon!!!

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