Sunday, February 05, 2012

Vagaries'Sunday Weekly Forecast for the week 5th Feb to 12th February.




1.F-1, predicted last week has taken grip over the Northern regions of the sub-continent since Friday, 3rd.Effectively active till Monday, 6th. 
From Tuesday, it moves into Nepal, aided by a low South of Nepal.Low helps bring in fairly heavy rains in central and Eastern Nepal on Tuesday night and wednesday,8th. Some places in Eastern Nepal and Sikkim may record upto 50 mms in 24hrs.
Rains move eastwards on Thursday.


2. From Monday night, Cold conditions, helped by strong NW winds bring in lower temperatures in plains of Northern Pakistan, NW India, Delhi, Haryana, Gujarat and Western Mah. 
Cold conditions, with temps below normal will last thru till Thursday.Gusty cold winds lash Delhi on Wednesday.

3. Konkan region starts heating from Thursday thru Saturday, with temperature going up to 34/35c in places.

4. No fresh W.D.this week.

Week's Forecast for Some Cities:

Mumbai: As mentioned yesterday, the N winds have brought down the day temperatures from yesterday's 35c to 31c today (Saturday). N winds will keep the tempeerature in the 30/31c level Sunday and Monday. Low will be around 15c on Sunday/Monday at S'Cruz and 18c at Colaba.
Tuesday/Wednesday will be comfortable, with the temperature range between 30c and 15c, could fall to 14c on Tuesday,at S'Cruz.The range will be 29c and 17c at Colaba.
Hot weather rules from Thursday/Friday, and Saturday in particular, will be hot, at 34/35c, with East winds dominating.


Pune: Sunday thru Wednesday will be cooler than the current temperature range of 32c - 13c.Monday thru Wed, Pune will see the days dropping to 30c and nights reminding of a returning winter when the temp drops to 9/10c on Tuesday. 
Thursday onwards, we see a rise again.

Delhi: F-1 will not really bring any rains to Delhi like we mentioned last week. But,gusty NW winds will substantially cool down the capital from Monday thru Thursday.From the current range of 24-11, we could see the temperatures dropping to 7c by Wednesday.Cold gusty winds will keep the day shivering cold on Wed/Thursday.

Chennai/Bangalore: Stable weather till Thursday/Friday. South winds for Bangalore keep the temps in current levels till Thursday, and Easterlies keep the conditions steady in Chennai. Friday onwards, we see warmer days, a rise in day temps by 2/3c from current 30c, in Chennai.
Bangalore rise in nights will be marginal to 18c from Thursday/Friday.

Bharuch will see cooling on Monday and Tuesday, with windy conditons. But sudden rise of 2/3c from Wed/Thursday in day temperatures.

Kathmandu:Warm till Monday, around 22c. Tuesday/wed overcast, and some good rains on Wed. Overcast skies mean lower day temps, aroound 18c, and warmer nights at 6/7c. Follwed by cooler nights from Thursday, as the skies clear.

Karachi/Sukkar:As the F-1 moves away, a drop in the temperatures is imminent. Nights will fall to 8c (Karachi) and 6c (Sukkar) on Monday/Tuesday. Cooler weather till Thursday. Expecting a rise from Friday.

If modifications or corrections are needed as the week progresses, vagaries will up date it. (Hope its not required -:))

Last week's Weekly forecast put up on Sunday last had all 4 points correct.Forecast was 90% accurate.
Please keep posting your local weather for correct assesment . Check Current Weather Page on Vagaries for your cities' current temperature.

Feedbacks on the weekly forecast are lacking and scarce. I am not too sure of its popularity..or usefulness. It takes long hours to prepare this, please let me know your views





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14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Rajeshbhai, Reading your weekly forecast keeps me calm...since guessing being the habit for me which used to keep me on toes, though it takes out little drama of uncertainty.

Another thing I wanted to share was about 10 C in Mumbai. We had a raging debate with my friend now based in Houston, who narrated that "I do not know what record keeping these people have however I remember on 30/31 Dec 1990 night when I was returning from Mumbai to Bharuch Mumbai temp dropped to 10 Deg. There was a cold front that time when Pune also dropped to 2.7 Verify this if possible." .....well, who else but you can verify!!

You may like to open your notes tucked away and throw some cold blast on the dates...

Potey

Anonymous said...

Dear Rajesh,

Your weekly forecasts is the third thing i look forward to every Sunday (after my morning coffee and Newspaper). Its extremely useful and comprehensive.
BTW you have chosen the right season to rollout weekly forecast. Your weekly predictions will be thoroughly tested and debated during 2012-Monsoon. Keep it going

Have a nice week ahead

Regards, Ananth

sset said...

Moment we hear word "monsoon" rajesh sir will come in our mind. Monsoon 2011 for Mumbai was very intense, long stayed duration and tiring. Please do not mention about monsoon 2012. Warmness over Mumbai is very welcome now. By the way now I am in Bangalore(my job has shifted here). Bangalore city is facing chronic water problem and power cuts - city looks as if torn apart, war zone [alien has bombed from sky], full of dust and concrete. No wonder now it is "garbage city of india"

svt said...

Weekly forecast is great concept.. plz continue. Just wanted to know whether min temp will continue to drop below 15c (scz) after this week or we had our mild winter. plz reply

RK said...

Your weekly forecasts are good, please keep it going.

rajesh said...

Cmdr Potey:Thanks..regarding the 1990 temps, have not had time today, but will come back to you after checking my "notes' (they were on paper then).
Ananth: Thanks..sure, the MSN time and predictions are really testing times..hope all goes well!
sset: lets see the SWM this time..hope you have a sucessfull stint in B'lore, and shall keep B'lore regularly on vagaries list now..lets hope for a good SWM for Karnataka.
svt: Thanks..S'Cruz can drop to lowest of 14/15c by the middle of the week..i personally do not see it going down again this season, though we may have a W.D. by the 12th of Feb..
RK: Thanks..Hope to hear and get reports from you to verify the forecasts..

rajesh said...

And Thanks for your mail Tyrone (Karachi).

Rohit said...

Rajesh, these weekly forecast are awesome. Sitting in N.W.US to know how Pune is doing in terms of waether is just super-cool. Keep up the good work.

Anonymous said...

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/article2851116.ece?ref=wl_industry-and-economy

I wonder whether you had a chance to read this report, is this not too early to predict monsoon.

Regards, Ananth

Anonymous said...

Hi
Pl keep up weekly forecast..........
how will summer heat all of us in mumbai this year pl put up your seasonal for mach to june heat i am eagerly waiting for it.
jayesh meha.

rajesh said...

Rohit: Thanks for reading from "there"..shall keep u informed.

Ananth/Jayesh:
The "forecast" for the SWM in the Business Line is based by the Japanese agency on the IOD parameter. They have discovered this important parameter, and this depends, at least it seems so, on the behaviour of the La-Nina or El-Nino,to some extent.
La-Nina has still not withdrawn, as put up in vagaries some time back.
So, as we are not too sure of the IOD as yet, its difficult to get the SWM estimate from now..their's is an estimate on "as-is-where-is" or today's situation, but that can change by March.
Cannot work on the summer forecast as yet, we still have Feb to go through..shall work out March estimate after seeing the w.D.s behaviour..surely will put it up when i am confident!

Anonymous said...

thank you for yoru comments
regards, Ananth

Anonymous said...

Bang on -for Bharuch - Satyen

rajesh said...

Cmdr Potey:Yes, my records do confirm a cold spell on the 30/31 Dec 1990. Mumbai S'Cruz saw 10c, Colaba was 13c. Pune was 2.8c, Nasik 3.2c and Nagpur 3.2c Aurangabad was 4.6c.
Udaipur plummetted to -1c on that nightand Mt Abu -7c !!