Friday, February 10, 2012



On recollection, Vagaries had predicted a UAC to form over the S.Mah. area on Friday (Today). A slight variation in the actual. Instead, a low at sea level has formed off the Karnataka/Kerala coast on Friday. 
Resultantly, some heavy rainfall is expected in Southern Kerala ( In the Southern quadrant of the low), including Thiruvananthpuram, on Saturday.

The system moves inland, rather NE, and moves into S.I.Karnataka and Southern Mah. regions on Saturday/Sunday, but as a UAC.
clouding is expected in these areas and possibly very light rains. Moderate rains in Kerala on Saturday.
As the UAC moves NE, it fizzles out as a system over Chattisgarh on Monday.


Naturally, this will result in clouds moving into Pune on the weekend, and, a rise in night temperatures from the current 6c to 10/11c.


Mumbai, which was 30c today, after being 4 days below 30c, will continue to see a rise in day and night temps. Sunday morning would rise to 19c at Colaba and 16c at S'Cruz. Days could go upto 33c on the weekend. Maybe with some cirrus clouds.
Winds turn Northerly again from Monday night. Meaning fall in temps.


F-2 enters the sub-continent through Pakistan on Saturday. Pakistan gets precipitation in its Northern regions Sat and Sun.


Meanwhile, the day and night temperatures will show a rise in Karachi. PWP in its blog states that Karachi had one of its codest days on the 7th, at 21.8c. Currently, the temperature range is etween 27 and 8c. Likely rise expected in the night temperatures by 2/3c this weekend. Marginal fall again from Tuesday as F-2 moves into India. 
Sukkar, saw a low of 4c, but, will have partly cloudy skies next 2 days, resulting in a rise in night temperatures. A fall again from Monday night. Could drop back to 5c levels next week.


F-2 moves into India on Sunday. Good precipiataion expected in Kashmir, H.P, and Northern Punjab on the weekend. Delhi night temperatures will gradually rise from the current 4c level to 9/10c by Sunday night (Monday morning). Light drizzle expected on Monday.
Again, snowfall on the weekend. 
F-2 likely to slip into Nepal on Tuesday.


Detailed forecast will be put on Saturday night (a bit late in the night) in the "Vagaries weekly forecast".(Kolkata readers please give regular feedback as and when possible to verify.)


Here is the latest Global Temperature taking Jan 2012 into account...

Click on Graph.....Well ??











6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi
when will this winter season will end in mumbai?
JM

Anonymous said...

JM,

Why are you in a hurry to end winter!! it will be sooner than later return of muggy mumbai, let's enjoy the sunny and humidity free mumbai. i always wished, what if mumbai was few degrees cooler with bountifull rains and humidity few notches below...alas!!....potey

rajesh said...

guys, dont think these pleasant temps will end very soon, read in between lines and notice that the fall in temps is imminent again next week...-:))

sridhar said...

but the next weeks fall doesnt seem to be going to be as low as the last few days.... could be hovering around 16/17c....what say..???

rajesh said...

sridhar:mentioned in blog of wed 8th...

Anonymous said...

Hi Rajeshbhai

I read between lines that is why I asked when winter will end in mumbai...
JM