Sunday, August 15, 2010

The rain spell from the previous low is all but over !
However, showers/thundershowers along the monsoon axis will continue.

We will now catch up, or rather chase up the other developments estimated in "vagaries", on the 13th.

A new low in the bay on the 17th ? Well, CMC says yes, it will form and move inland from the 18th.
ECMWRF and GFS say nothing is on the horizon ! two diverse views.
So, now lets wait and watch, it's a matter of 2 days. Bay of Bengal is putting up surprises !

Then, the next was the MJO push in the Arabian Sea. Yes, that's at least on stream. It has shown good clouding, and is heading towards the kerala coast.
Of-course lots of rain on the Kerala coast, and Karnataka coast. A little bit of rain creeping in the interiors of Karnataka is possible on Monday/Tuesday.
But its for a day only. Rain patch can move up along the west coast to hit the Maharashtra coast, that is around Thursday but I see it weakening by then.
On Tuesday/Wednesday (17th/18th), a local vortex is likely to form, for a day, just around the region east of Mumbai. So, some rain inland ,in the madhya Maharashtra region.

Mumbai: Slight change in the forecast put up on 13th. Monday, passing rains, sunny with 10 mms of rain. Rain intensity will increase for a day on Tuesday/Wednesday.Thursday, a sudden drop in the frequency of showers.Warm, or should I put hot ?

3 comments:

nt said...

Rajesh, your forecast about rain intensity increasing on Tuesday / Wednesday was bang on target. Very heavy rainfall occured in the Mumbai suburbs in the wee hours today with some small lanes having to face water logging situations. Infact there was thunder and lightning too just to make things interesting!!

By the way, there was some news about a cloud burst in the Badrinath area yesterday. Did not seem to be as disastrous as the Leh episode

Anonymous said...

The IMD confirms the very heay rains in Subarban Mumbai (SCZ) - it was 16 cms i.e. slightly more then 6 inches. This fell in around 3 hours which means the intensity was close to 2 inches per hour!!

A localized cloud burst? Since Colaba does not figure in the IMD list of stations having recieved heavy rainfall

rajesh said...

Mumbai rains were estimated by me on the basis of the vortex forming, as explained. the vortex formed around Mumbai and slightly of east of the city.

I would not say it is a cloudburst. A small vortex is generally localised, and this rain was spread over the suburbs and inland over Uran.

Not read about the badrinath rains yet.