The rain spell from the previous low is all but over !
However, showers/thundershowers along the monsoon axis will continue.
We will now catch up, or rather chase up the other developments estimated in "vagaries", on the 13th.
A new low in the bay on the 17th ? Well, CMC says yes, it will form and move inland from the 18th.
ECMWRF and GFS say nothing is on the horizon ! two diverse views.
So, now lets wait and watch, it's a matter of 2 days. Bay of Bengal is putting up surprises !
Then, the next was the MJO push in the Arabian Sea. Yes, that's at least on stream. It has shown good clouding, and is heading towards the kerala coast.
Of-course lots of rain on the Kerala coast, and Karnataka coast. A little bit of rain creeping in the interiors of Karnataka is possible on Monday/Tuesday.
But its for a day only. Rain patch can move up along the west coast to hit the Maharashtra coast, that is around Thursday but I see it weakening by then.
On Tuesday/Wednesday (17th/18th), a local vortex is likely to form, for a day, just around the region east of Mumbai. So, some rain inland ,in the madhya Maharashtra region.
Mumbai: Slight change in the forecast put up on 13th. Monday, passing rains, sunny with 10 mms of rain. Rain intensity will increase for a day on Tuesday/Wednesday.Thursday, a sudden drop in the frequency of showers.Warm, or should I put hot ?