Ok,so Mumbai is getting the required "breather". With 22 mms of rain in Mumbai on Tuesday (vagaries estimated 20 mms), and just less than 10 mms on Wednesday, I anticipate the situation to remain "status Quo" till Saturday.
I had kept the forecast "on hold" in my last blog till Thursday, now why extend till Saturday?
A slight shift in the situation. The low has formed in the bay, and NRL has numbered it 90B, at 19.4N and 86.1E.But, many models doubt its intensification capacity. Infact, only IMD confirms its status growing to "well marked low". Ok, might just deepen to 996 mb from current 1000mb.
But, even if it does go beyond 996 mb, it may take a day or two longer than its normal estimated speed rate.. Might just linger off the coast till Saturday.
Like the previous instance, Kerala and North Karnataka coasts will get winds, bringing in rains till Friday/Saturday, a result of the rush towards the low prior to its inland movement.
Subdued rains this week all over central and northern India. Bihar, Jharkhand and Southern W.Bengal may see an increase in rainfall Friday/Saturday, as the low intensifies.
Thursday thru Saturday for Mumbai: Showers of passing nature, not persistent, with sunny intervals. Day temperature, hitherto around 28c, will creep up to 30/31c. Around 10-15 mms/day.No hindrances !
With 2 months to go, touching the 2500 mms mark (100") should not be difficult for Mumbai Colaba.Like mentioned earlier, the all time record for Colaba stands at 3482 mms.
Lakes supplying water to Mumbai, have received good rains on Monday and Tuesday. In these 2 days, Modak Sagar 165 mms, Upper Vaitarna has got 170 mms, Bhatsa 112 mms, Tulsi 105 mms, mms, Tansa 123 mms and Vihar 63 mms.
This has increased the storage stock . The stock as on 3rd August, year wise is:
2005: 11.36 lmlitres.
2006: 12.24 lmlitres
2007: 7.20 lmlitres
2008: 6.80 lmlitres
2009: 7.20 lmlitres
2010: 9.00 lmlitres.