Saturday, June 09, 2007

Monsoon Watch - 23

With Gonu having crossed the Oman coast, its pull has diminished over the Arabian Sea. The monsoon south westerlies have once again picked up in strenght.Normally it would have taken a bit longer for the winds to re-group, considering the massive intensity of Gonu.But the kinetic energy has been recouped, and the monsoon flow is once again dominating the Arabian Sea.(See last blog).

The forecast model NCMWRF cites an increase in sea level pressure gradiant along the west coast of India.This means strenghening of the monsoon flow over Arabian Sea, peninsula India, and the Bay branch of the monsoon current from Saturday. So now the monsoon can advance up into coastal Maharashtra and the northeastern states (already announced by IMD), from Saturday onwards. Taking a look at the satellite image of the sea, and the force it is generating, I think the monsoon will be in an active phase along the west coast from early next week. Mumbai may see heavy rains commencing Sunday/Monday onwards.

This is matched by an intesifying of the heat wave all over the northern sub continent. The highest temperature today was at Larkana in Pakistan at 50 c, and 48.8 c at Nawabshah, 48 c at Sibbi. (Last year the first 50 was on 26th. May at Jacobabad). Today, in India 46.6 c was recorded at Ganganagar, 45.8 at Amrisar,and several places at 45 c. Gwalior had an unbelievable minimum temperature of 36 c !Delhi was low at 33.5 c !

2 comments:

Parag Parikh said...

Dear Rajesh
I really appreciate your interest and passion on the subject. Most of the times your predictions are always right. Your blogs do help me a lot being an avid golfer. This weekend I did not fix up a game due to your blog. This helped me to rework my priorities for the weekend. Thanks.
parag

Anonymous said...

Hi what you say is true, but you are like the weather it self Most unpredictable. Take care.