This satellite image of Gonu from DSRS( 1800 hrs.UTC of 4th.) says it all !
Gonu has intensified into a "super cyclone",with an estimated core pressure of only 920 mb,and core winds of 160 kts/hr. This is phenomenal, and landfall at this intensity (if maintained) could be damaging. One cannot rule out unusually wet and windy weather for Oman, Dubai and parts of Saudi Arabia in the next 2 days.
Gonu is now moving north-west and as expected can strike the Oman coast (mostly the north-east coast) by the evening of 5th. But its further intensificaton is in doubt, as the waters it now enters will be not as warm as the current path. Even, on crossing the land, the cyclone should weaken rapidly,as it will be encountering dry air of the Arabian Peninsula.
Monsoon Watch - 22
Gonu has sapped up all the energy available from the Arabian Sea, and redirected the winds towards its centre.
The satellite image also shows a band of monsoon clouds forming south of the cyclone, and not attached to , around the centre of the Arabian Sea, between India and the African coast. Maintaining the stand that regrouping of the monsoon clouds can start after the cyclone crosses land, we can presume the regular monsoon to regenerate force by the 7th.As required (see prevoius blog), a ridge is established over the northern sub continent. Northward movement along the west coast of India can resume from the 8th. and the schedule for Mumbai could be kept for the 8th. or 9th. A fresh monsoon surge may not take more than a day or two more to progress into Gujarat and interior Maharashtra.
A friend has asked about the heat in Delhi. Well, presuming the north gets hot now onwards, the monsoon should be on time in Delhi, by the end of this month !