Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Monsoon Watch - 26

The heat wave in the northern sub continent last few days has set up a perfect heat gradiant for the monsoon to advance northwards. The heat low gradiant helps the alignment of a suitable pressure difference from the south, where Thiruvananthpuram is at 1010 mb. and to the northwest where Rajasthan/Pakistan desert areas are at 992 mb. now.

This low pressure area spans now from Arabia to northwest India, and the surface winds from the Arabian sea to the Indian peninsula are as they should be now. The IMD has confirmed the monsoon's further advance into south Konkan.

Thelinks of the monsoon requirment are in place now, and the monsoon confirms this by its advance into the coastal Maharashtra region today. Though monsoon rains are not in full strenght yet, the south west winds are never the less pushing ahead, and rain intensity should increase along west coast initially, and later inlands. For this, the Arabian Sea or the bay has to form a low, or warm up a bit more as mentioned in MW-25.

Mumbai has been uncomfortable with a temperature range of 35c as high and 30 c as low with high humidity levels. But the city should get the monsoon by Friday, as there is now no hindrance to stop the movement. But the initial strenght( amount of rain) and inland thrust of the monsoon will depend on the early formation of a low in the bay.

As mentioned , northern areas of the sub continent may see a revival of the heat wave in a couple of days.

contact: kapadias@gmail.com


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

An old adage goes 'lightning never strikes twice at the same place', however it was tragic to read about the deaths of 6 children in an incident where lightning struck thrice at the same place (school building) in a span of couple of minutes in Ranchi.