Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Monsoon Watch - 28

Monsoon has moved into Mumbai today, 18th. June, as per the statement by the IMD.

The monsoon,though set in, is still a weak current over Mumbai, and rainfall still sparse along the west coast north of Goa. Even below Goa, it is not the usual monsoon downpour.

An estimate is made by the ECMWF of a low being formed in the bay by the 20th. A bold forecast is made of the progress of this low. It is estimated that this low will travel from the coast off A.P. through India right upto Gujarat, by Friday/saturday, and along its path, heavy rain is expected. If this forecast holds good,( I do not trust the behaviour of the monsoon this year), it will be extremely beneficial to the parched areas of the northern region of the Indian peninsula.

Another confusing GSM numerical forecast is a hint of a low pressure (tropical depression or even cyclone) showing up over the eastern Arabian Sea late in the week.

It is a bit difficult to exactly understand the actual happening, only can guess that the weather is set to become increasingly unsettled.

Positive signs : Good south westerly flow in the Arabian Sea, trough of low pressure along the west coast.
Negative signs : low day temperatures in the northern region of the sub continent. Day temperatures as low as 10 c below the normal, heavy rain all along the north, and heat low area shrinking in the desert region of India/Pakistan.



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