Saturday, June 16, 2007

Monsoon Watch - 27

The monsoon current is seen progressing very slowly in the Arabian Sea branch,but the bay branch shows fast westwards movement along the northern and eastern areas of India, with it having almost reached Lucknow by the 15th.June. Delhi recieved heavy pre monsoon rain on 15th/16, along with the entire northern areas of the subcontnent and some heavy rain in north Pakistan too. The result is a good fall in the day temperatures. The map shows the variation from the normal,and is clear that the entire northern belt is pleasantly below ythe normal. (Sharp contrast from two days ago).
This has occured , contrary to my forecast of the heat returning, as the rain bearing "easterly wave'' remained sort of intact, resulting in pre monsoon showers all along the U.P.and Bihar regions.

This COLA forecast indicates moderately heavy rains along the west upto Mumbai, but very little inland till 23rd. June. From 23rd to 1st. july the forecast indictes heavy rain along the west coast and rain spreading to the north India too. Should happen, as ECMWF and the IMD have predictede a low to form in the bay around the 20th. June.( please refer previous MW too).

But the past 12 hrs rain accumalation , as on today shows very little rain inland in the peninsula India,except a patch in the east, as seen in this image.

So, the estimate of much rain along the west coast from the week of 10th. of June by computer models has again been betrayed, due to cooling of the northern belt, by the prevailing easterly wave there, and thus preventing the jet stream easterlies of the southern peninsula from moving north. The jet streams have been stuck at 10N location,near Chennai,but are expected to move north by 16th.

Yes, as per the conditions now, the positive side is the south west winds formation intact, the jet stream moving up, and" fairly" good clouding along the west coast, and the negative sides are average sea temperatures, low day temperatures in the India/Pakistan northern areas( highest in the area was 45 c, compared to 52 c , 3 days ago), no low formed yet in either sea, very little wind strenght in Mumbai and coastal regions today. IMD has predicted monsoon to advance further up the west coast today. But , it could be today, tomorrow or three days, I should not venture out with a forecast at this stage of this year's monsoon.(Unpredictable and irregular performance as yet by any standards).



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