The Arabian Sea today hosts a"severe Cyclonic Storm"-Gonu.
The result is that this severe system is attracting more and more of the moist westerly flows, meant for the regular monsoon, and is further intensifying itself, as mentioned in the last blog. It is now moving west-north-west. Most likely "Gonu" will strike the south Oman coast by Monday evening. As was expected, the monsoon flow will get temporarily halted as a result. Forecast models show that the monsoon winds should take a couple of days to re-group after the cyclone crosses the coast and halts pulling the winds towards its core. Hence the northward march of the monsoon may start after 6th. June, and enter Mumbai only around 8th.June. Further movement into Gujarat and interior Maharashtra can be around 10/11 June.
Now,the seasonal trough which had formed around central India on May 7th, has been pushed to the foothills of the Himalayas.The seasonal trough can then get converted ,with the arrival of regular mosoon flow, into an east-west trough and get activated .This can create a trough, or even a "low" at the head of the Bay, and trigger in the required monsoon activity in the eastern region. This means the monsoon may enter the North East also around the 8th.June.
Meanwhile the heat has started intensifying with 47c in Pakistan and a few 45c in India.
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