Monday, June 25, 2007

Tropical Storm 03B after crossing into the Arabian Sea has started intensifying, and is already a "no name "cyclone. It is now off the Sindh coast, about 110 nm. south of Karachi. On intansifying, 03B, will take the last of the 3 options ,mentioned in my last blog. It seems it will cross the Pakistan coast, between 62E and 63E on Tuesday night. Karachi, being on the outskirts, will be spared the heavy rain, and can get moderate rain, but certainly will get very breezy. But the danger from this storm will be floodings, due to heavy rain, in South-West Pakistan and North-East Oman.

On passing into the Arabian Sea, 03B has poured torrential rains in Maharashtra on Saturday and Sunday. Some interesting rain amounts in mms for 24 hrs. on Saturday in Maharashtra/Gujarat:
Bhira – 47o, Koyana(n) – 27o, Koyana (p) -25o, Dungerwadi – 21o,Mhasala - 30o, Colaba - 28o, Vaibhavwadi-25o, Alibaug, Pali, Mahableshwar - 23o each, Poladpur - 22o, Santacruz - 21o, Roha, Tala - 19o each, Matheran, Sawantwadi - 17o each, Panaji-16o, Mangaon, Pen, Mevad, Kolhapur - 15o each, Harnai, Kankavali - 14o each, Devgad – 13o, Khalapur, Ratnagiri - 12o each, Karjat, Veraval - 10o each. And for Sunday :Ambone -180, Tamini -130,Alibag -170, Igatpuri, Mahabaleshwar -150 each.

Having just moved into Gujarat, the monsoon may again delay its northward movement, as the winds in the Arabian Sea are once more pulled into the cyclonic spin.The rains in the east of India too were sparse due to 03B. The west coast (including Mumbai) will experience a sort of lull in the rains for a few days, till a new system activates the winds back to the south west direction.

However, a fresh low has been predicted in the Bay by the 26th. The ECMWF sees this system intensifying into a possible cyclone, to cross Orissa coast, by Friday.

This system will activate the monsoon in the eastern parts of India,and a north-westerly track of the new system will bring the monsoon into Delhi region.

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