Monsoon Watch - 9
The bay temperature has now been steadily constant at 31-32°, and is sufficiently ready to host a low. Hence with the formation of an "UAC", it is expected that this"UAC" will descend to form the first "low" of the season in a day or two.This formation will surely be triggered by the "shoot-outs" from the ITCZ, which is at present located near the Malaysian area. If the "low" gains and attracts the heavy cloud formation around it, and the southwesterlies currently prevailing over the Malaysia area migrate northwest, it could herald the setting of the South West Monsoon in the South Andaman Sea around the 8th. of May.
The ITCZ movement northwards is to be followed for the mainland, as when it is near the Southern tip of India and SriLanka, the monsoon gets triggered on.But to reach this lattitude, at the present rate of developments, should be in around 25 days from now.
Meanwhile the heat wave over India/Pakistan continues, with Bhawalnagar(Pakistan) topping 47° , and Hissar and Akola at 46° yesterday. Today it was Jacobabad and Bhawalnagar(Pakistan) at 46° and Ganganagar (India) at 45° among the highest.