Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Monsoon Watch - 19

The IMD has announced the advance of the South West Monsoon over Kerala on 28th. May.

Bang on target, as expected, after the moving away of the W.D., the south west winds regrouped fast, and even formed a low pressure off shore trough off the west coast of india,(as seen here on this IMD streamline map).
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/hp925sa.htm( click and paste this if unable to direct click).
The "push effect" was fast, as I was only expecting the winds to pick up from today, and take a day or two, but it has actually pushed the monsoon current into the south west coast, where ,in Kerala, heavy rainfall ranging from 40- 120 mms was reported today.
Due to this sudden thrust, I think the actual winds from the south west may take 2 days more to again gain the required momentum to again push the monsoon northwards. The satellite image today shows clouds off the southern tip and Kerala, but more gathering of clouds are needed in the central Arabian Sea for a further movement north of the monsoon. Due to the low pressure trough persisting off the west coast, further thickening of heavy clouds in the central and eastern Arabian Sea will take place in a few days , and further northward movement of the monsoon may take 2/3 days time.

The highest temperature in the sub continent today was 44 degrees at Nagpur and Nawabshah. But with the moving away of the W.D. from the northern areas of the sub continent, the Sindh areas of Pakistan, and Rajasthan in India will see a sudden rise in day temperatures, maybe to around 46-47 in a day or two. Interestingly, stations in Saudi Arabia
Dhahran Airport recorded 47 ,Al Ahsa Airport and Dammam Airport recorded 46° today. This augments well for the monsoon, as the seasonal low of the monsoon has to spread upto the Arabian Peninsula by the time the monsoon starts in the sub continent.

Karachi, which had shot up to 42 degress 2 days ago, can expect a return to 35/36 degrees. As the Arabian sea breeze has now rearranged itself, the north wind from the interiors, having caused the sudden rise have abated.

Mumbai, is getting more humid and stuffy. The temperatures are now at present ranging from 35 in the day to only 29 as the minimum, with high humidity levels. But with the situation showing signs of the monsoon progressing soon, initial pre monsoon showers could be expected in Mumbai around 31 May.

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