Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Monsoon Watch - 16

The line of a couple of W.D.'s has trimmed the heat in the subcontinent persistently since the last 5/6 days. Today the highest was 44°,(only), again in Machillipatnam and in Nawabshah. In a most of the places the days were normal to below normal.

IMD and international models forecast another two W.D.'s coming from Pakistan into N.India between the 22nd. and 27th. May. Even though these will be in the form of lows in the" upper atmosphere", they will bring rain and thunder showers to N.Pakistan and N.India, as a result keeping the temperatures around the normal levels through this week.

In fact, today, the smooth flow of the south westerlies from the Arabian Sea was broken due to the W.D. movement. A line discontinuaty in the winds has formed off the Oman coast in the Arabian Sea. The progress of the weak low, already formed off the Africa coast, will be stagneted and can strenghten only when the low aloft forms a trough from Pakistan southwards.(That is after the passing away of the W.D.).

Hence the week commencing 28th.May should see the monsoon winds in the Arabian Sea getting organised and re curving again towards the west coast of India.

Meanwhile the Bay branch of the monsoon has moved north, and should hit the hills of the north eastern region of India in two days, by the 24th. Normally, the monsoon hits Kerala and the North east region on the same date on 1st. June. But this year,the Bay monsoon current is early, an the monsoon could have kept its normal arrangement in the Arabian Sea branch too, but for the "out of place" W.D.'s.

As is said, man proposes, but God disposes !

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