Monsoon Watch -8
As anticipated, and required, the low temperature phase of Maharashtra has disappeared. In fact the temperatures have suddenly jumped, and gone above the normal. From a minimium of 20.6° a few days ago in Aurangabad, today's minimum was 29.2°, and Pune has risen from 16° (-5) to 22°(+1). The days were very hot too in Maharashtra,with Nagpur and Akola at 44°.
The sub continent as a whole has started heating up rapidly, and there were 2 places with 45° in Pakistan today, 5 places in Pakistan and 2 in India recording 44°, and at least 12 places with 43° in both the countries !
According to Jim(Accuweather), the high pressure in the upper altitudes favours the heat wave, and the next week may see the heat increasing. A few hot spots in Rajasthan and Sindh (Pakistan) may see temperatures at 47°, most parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra should also witness intense heat ,with many places in these states going to around 43-45° next week.
This favours the intensifying of the "low" over N.India to spread westwards and deepen to at least 1000 mb from the present 1004 mb.(Must reach 994 mb just before Monsoon).
By now, most of the central and southern Bay has heated to 31°. So the formation of a" low" in the first week of May seems likely.
Even most parts of the Arabian Sea , except the Northern areas, are at 31°. Constant sea temperature at 31 -32 °, should help pull the cross equitorial winds, maybe in another 15 days.
If the conditions are maintained, and the Arabian Sea remains around 32-33° till end of next month, the South West moisture laden monsoon winds from the African coast will be rushing into Kerala in the last week of May. And due to the warm sea, initial phase should be heavy along the west coast,and maybe coastal Gujarat.