Monsoon Watch - 10
As anticipated, the bay did host a low,wich became well marked on the 4th. On the 5th. it moved rapidly north, and crossed the coast of Myanmar as a depression. Now,the entire bay is warm enough to welcomethe monsoon current of the bay branch. It is around 31° - 32° all along from the Bengal coast to the Andamans,thus behind the last low, south westerlies are prevailing over the Andamans,and more rain is predicted there, as as per my observations, the cross equitorial winds are crossing the equator below the bay and aiming at the Andamans, thus assuring the monsoon there within a few days.
This is as far as the Bay branch is concerned. As regards the Arabian Sea branch (which hits the mainland), the cross equitorial winds are now only turning towards the Arabian Sea, and are gaining strenght near the Somali coast. Another 15 days from now and the winds should be strong enough to bring the monsoon clouds to kerala any time after 25th. May. This is possible,as the heat gradiant required to pull the winds is building up and will get stronger as the heat wave is forcasted from Monday onwards.The renewed heat may see temperatures as high as 48-49° in Pakistan,and 47° in Rajasthan and Vidharb region of Maharastra.
The north south trough prevails from central India to peninsula,and has created relief thunderstorms. But this was a temporary respite to some areas,larger parts of North,central and peninsula India are to experiance a fresh heat wave.