Continuing from the last "MW", it seems the estimate that the monsoon will cover the Bay in 10 days time holds good. The depression in the Bay, has now become deep, and may even become a cyclone. It is heading north, and as per the forecast by ECMWF, the system will intensify into a cyclone and cross West Bengal coast by May 17th. The monsoon will be pulled with this system to the Bengal coast and the North East region.
Meanwhile the heat wave in the north has abated, and thanks to some duststorms and thundershowers, the temperatures have come to near normal levels. But mild heat wave conditions prevail in the Vidharbh region.The highest in India and Pakistan today was 45° at Nagpur and Nawabshah.
Still, the U.S. based COLA, indicates a "burst" of rains starting over Kerala around the 21/22 of May. The ECMWF predicts a low in the Arabian Sea around the 23rd. of May, thus on similar lines, predicting rains in Kerala from around the 24th. of May. Thus, early Monsoon, by a week, is estimated by international projections.
Even the current streamlines show strong south west winds, pulled by the deep depressoin in the Bay, at the Sri Lanka coast.