Friday, May 25, 2007

Monsoon Watch - 17

A look at todays streamline of the Arabian Sea, shows a totally messed up view (check the IMD site). An anti clock-wise wind formation seems to be churning the sea, indicating, maybe the formation of a high pressure ! The winds along the west coast of India is North-South,and the wind discontinuaty off the Oman coast has produced cloud formations in the southern parts of Oman. A sharp contrast from the superb cross equatorial flow we saw 10 days back. And as a result, the massive cloud formation in the Arabian sea has all but vanished today.

Now, all this has resulted because of the W.D.'s ruling the northern parts of the sub continent for the past week. The result is normal to below normal temperatures all along central and northern India and Pakistan, and the forecast of another W.D. coming (IMD) is going to result in more lower than normal temperatures for a few more days. (In the extreme north, Pahalgam,Kashmir had a low of 3 on the 23rd.).

[Just compare the temperatures in Pakistan a year ago, on 27th. May 2006
ISLAMABAD 23.5 41.7 QUETTA 19.5 35.5 SIBBI 33.1 50.1 JACOBABAD 31.2 51.0 ROHRI 28.3 49.0 NAWBSHAH 27.5 47.2 HYDERABAD 27.0 42.5. KARACHI 26.2 35.0

Temperatures, hot enough to produce a sub continent low of 994 mb. This year the same low is stuck at 998 mb.]

A spell of rain and thundershowers is projected to move up the west coast of India upto Gujarat, this week end, as mentioned by Jim, in his latest blog. But this should not be mistaken for the arrival of the monsoon.

I think (and hope), that the monsoon regrouping of winds and clouds should restart from 28th. May, after the W.D. moves away. We can still hope to see the monsoon arriving around the normal date.

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kapadias@gmail.com



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