TOP 25 DISTRICT RAINFALL 1-3-2019 TO 31-5-2019
DISTRICT (state)	Actual Rainfall (mm)
EAST KHASI HILLS (meghalaya)	1222.9
EAST GARO HILLS (maghalaya)	1212.1
BAKSA (assam)	964.4
UPPER SIANG (arunachal pradesh)	934.4
NALBARI (assam)	919.9
KOKRAJHAR (assam)	894.8
BARPETA (assam)	877.7
NORTH TRIPURA (tripura)	856.0
CHANGLANG (arunachal pradesh)	841.1
NORTH SIKKIM (sikkim)	835.3
KAMRUP RURAL (assam)	802.8
GOALPARA (assam)	783.8
KURUNG KUMEY (arunachal pradesh)	750.9
PAPUM-PARE (arunachal pradesh)	738.7
TINSUKIA (assam)	734.5
EAST SIKKIM (sikkim)	734.3
LOHIT (arunachal pradesh)	729.9
EAST SIANG (arunachal pradesh)	709.3
HAILAKANDI (assam)	703.9
DIBRUGARH (assam)	700.5
KARIMGANJ (assam)	665.5
SIBSAGAR (assam)	638.9
UDALGURI (assam)	635.6
CHIRANG (assam)	632.6
DHUBRI (assam)	630.4
38 districts received 0 mm rainfall during the period.  26 districts received less than 2 mm rainfall.  209 out of the 674 districts for which data is available  recorded between -60% to -100% rainfall deficit.
	source IMD

Mumbai Lake Levels as on 31st May 2019: In Mls
Modak Sagar 44462, Tansa 14777, Middle Vaitarna 36072, Bhatsa 47853, Vihar 1576, Tulsi 2269
Total 147010....Supply per day is 3450 ( after the cut), so Stock only till around 15th July.
Info from Jayesh Mehta Posted Friday 31st May Evening:

The South West Monsoon has advanced into the Maldives area and the Andaman Sea.
It is likely to move into Sri Lanka by 3rd June as a weak current.
Monsoon current may then intensify from 4th , and Kerala could have hopes of Monsoon arrival by 6th June. A low pressure may form in the Lakshdweep region around 6th June.
Further push into Coastal Karnataka likely after 6th June...and South West Monsoon may enter Coastal Karnataka around 7th June. 
Possible chance of current weakening a bit then.( For a few days).

{Next 4 days:
Mumbai: Partly cloudy, with very humid conditions. Temperatures around 34c, but the real feel will be around 41c. Light rain and drizzles possible in some parts of city on 3rd and 4th June. Regular Monsoon onset not before 14th June as explained earlier.

Pune: Hot at 37/38c. Very windy. There has been a total absence of any pre monsoon thunder activity in Pune in May....Unusually dry and hot. First pre monsoon showers not expected before 4th June.

Mahableshwar: An unusually dry and hot May this year for this Hill Station. With 0 mm of rain, it is the driest May in more than 10 years. This Station should normally get around 50 mms in May. The day temperatures which should normally be around 29c, are hovering around 34c ! ...and no relief seen in the next 4 days.}

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Heat Wave in major parts of North, North West, Central India and Central Peninsula continues.

On 31st Friday, Sri Ganganagar 49.6c (Record for this place is 50c in 1934), Churu 48.5c,  Jabalpur 46.8c (All time high), Rewa 46.8c, Nagpur 46.5c,  Chandrapur 46c, Agra saw a high of 45.5c, 

The 10 Hottest Spots in the World  Recording of all stations is of 31st May. Heet and Banda 
is 30th May...

1	Heet (Iraq)		52.5°C
2	Jacobabad (Pakistan)		50.1°C
3	Ganganagar (India)		49.6°C
4	Churu (India)		48.5°C
5	Banda (India)		48.2°C
6	Matam (Senegal)		48°C
7	Bahawalnagar (Pakistan)		47.5°C
8	Nowgong (India)		47.2°C
9	Rohri (Pakistan)		47.1°C
10	Sibi (Pakistan)		47.1°C

Actual Readings at 14.30 Friday in the Heat Wave Regios (Not Max)

Posted 29th May Night:

{Next 4 Days:
Mumbai:  Hot, Humid and sweaty ! Uncomfortable high humidity real feel of 41c. Light Pre Monsoon drizzles /rain from 3rd/4th June.
Pune: Hot at 39/40c, with gusty westerly winds in the day. }

"Too much of choice in any form leads to confusion".....And that is what is happening with amateur meteorologists today who are following the Monsoon development in various wind, pressure, upper winds and various charts. 

As per Vagaries' last report, the South West Monsoon showed a slight delay of about 4 days (over our previous estimate) in its advance beginning from The Maldives.

Now, the OLR image shows less than 200 W-2 in the 55E to 80E section box. 

31st May winds at 925 hpa in the off shore regions of Maldives and Sri Lanka (West ) increasing to >15-20 knts.

UTH shows suitable conditions for strengthening of Monsoon.

The Jet Streams have turned direction and become Easterlies in the Southern region below 10N...thus suitably placed by the " this Important " parameter...

SST off Somalia coast is reducing, and creating a temperature variation between the region and Mid Arabian Sea.

South West Monsoon favourably placed for advance into Maldives by 31st may.
Likely advance into Sri Lanka by 1st/2nd June.. and into Kerala by 5th June.
It has covered the Andaman Region.

(What is brewing off  Somalia Coast...Something happening ?)

Posted 26th May Night:
We had mentioned in our last Monsoon Watch that the cross Equatorial winds, Somalia SST  are yet to strengthen. 

We had pinned hopes on the Arabian Sea development for the Monsoon to gather momentum. 
But since the last 4/5 days, we see stagnancy in the scenario, in both the Bay and Arabian Sea segments.
The ray of hope is for an area of development seen near the Maldives in the Arabian Sea.

This development is keeping the momentum alive. This is directly linked to the SST variations in the Arabian Sea. 

Thus we see the South West Monsoon advance delayed by 3/4 days beyond 27th May (estimated date) for the Maldives. Subsequent delay (proportionately) for further regions will be monitored.
The Bay branch lags behind our schedule, and the Monsoon should cover the entire Andaman region by 29th May ,with some positive signs seen.

Heat wave conditions are likely next 4 days in Vidharbh and Telengana. Temperatures in Chandrapur and Nagpur likely at 46/47c.

North India is likely to see a rise in the heat in the next 3 days. New Delhi may record 45/46c during the week.
Days expected to get hot (above normal) in Odisha.

Mumbai: As mentioned, the first pre monsoon rains will be seen in the first week of June. 
From Monday, Next 4 days will be humid, sweaty and hot, with the temp around 34c, and humidity high enough to make a real feel factor of 41c. (Real feel is what the body actually feels considering the temperature, winds and humidity).
Pune: (Next 4 days) Hot around 39/40c and dry. Strong winds in the day. Partly cloudy on 29th.

Posted 21st May ...Afternoon:
Getting Favourable for Maldives next 2 days...(as per Point no 5...Below)

Posted 20th May Afternoon:

1. South West Monsoon has advanced into South Andamans on 18th May 2019.
To advance into rest of Andaman regions by 22nd May, and progress into the region by 23rd.

2. A "stubborn" Anti Cyclone siting and sea level in the Arabian Sea, and spreading as a Ridge Westwards at upper levels, will bring Heat wave conditions in Vidharbh and Telengana from 20th -24th May. Temperatures in the concerned cities will be between 46/47c.. Touching 48c in a few places.

3.Western Disturbance M-5 likely to cover the Northern and NW plains of Sub Continent on 23rd/24th.

5. South West Monsoon winds in the Arabian Sea will gather strength , though partially, around the Maldives Region in the next 2 days. Upper Jet winds likely to get conducive.

Next 4 days:
Mumbai:  Partly cloudy, with sea breeze commencing post noon. Humidifying the atmosphere to sweaty and discomfort levels. Max temperature will be around 35c and minimum 26/27c.  Real feel may cross 40c.
City expected to get pre monsoon showers around 1st week of June.

Pune: Warm, very warm at 40c. Nights showing a 18-20c drop to show a minimum of 22c. Pre monsoon thunder showers likely by month end.

Monsoon Watch -4.....17th May

The bay branch of the South West Monsoon is gaining fast, and the South West winds are picking up.
The surface South West winds will be strong from the 20th of May in the Bay. In depth of the winds indicate the strengthening after 23rd.

The South West Monsoon will advance into South and Middle Andamans on 20th of May (As mentioned here).

South Andamans: 20th May

Andamans Islands : 23rd May

Maldives:  26th/27th May 

Sri Lanka: 30th/31st May

Kerala & NE States: 4th/5th June.

Coastal Karnatak: 8th June

Goa 9th/10th June

Mumbai  & West Bengal: 13th/14th June.

Arabian Sea Branch winds are weak North of Equator. Somalia Current yet to strengthen and SST not yet dropped.

South West Monsoon will  advance into Coastal South Gujarat by 18th/20th and remaining Saurashtra and North Gujarat (Barring Kutch) by 24th June. Central India by 20th and would cover New Delhi by 29th June.
Monsoon will advance into Pakistan in 1st week of July.

Quantum for June and July:

 Overall Season, it seems, on all India basis, and on overall distribution, will be between 96%-101% of the Normal..

Meanwhile for the mainland  India, another Western Disturbance (M-4) has entered the Sub Continent region, and will bring rains to the North and North West on 17th/18th.

But, there will be pause in the Western disturbances after 22nd, which will enable the seasonal Low to form properly.today the core of the Seasonal Low is at 1004 mb.
This in turn will create the formation of the west coast off shore trough after the 23rd of May.

Heat wave conditions will continue to prevail in Vidharbh and Telengana. Some cities maximum ( Chandrapur, Brahmapuri, Nagpur) in Vidharbh will touch between 45-47c, and 30-32c as minimum next 2/3 days

.

Posted Tuesday 14th Afternoon:

Delhi NCR received Thunder showers and squall after a long "Heat Gap" of 10 days. Last showers before this spell were on May 3rd. 
A series of 2/3 Western Disturbances are causing these storms. 
NCR will be getting the thunder showers a with rain for the next 2/3 evenings due to these WDs.

Entire NW and North India and Himalayan regions will get rains for next 2 days. Temperatures will drop and attain "some comfort levels'" by dropping below 40c. Last night S'jung saw a minimum of 20.8c.
Many parts of Kashmir got rains...with Gulmarg minimum dropping to 3c.
This Anomaly Map shows it all

Kerala is getting its Pre Monsoon showers, which had peaked in end of April.
Reorganization of the cross Equatorial winds south of the Equator is in process. The Somali Current is yet to form and attain strength. Thereby delaying the Aabian Sea Branch.
 But the Bay Branch is expected to bring the South West Monsoon to South Andamans by 20th/21st May.
Next  4 days:
Mumbai:  Partly cloudy, especially at night. Humid and sweaty conditions at Max 34c and min 26c.

Pune: Partly cloudy evenings. Hot day at 39/40c and nightts around 21/22c.

The 10 Hottest places in the World: 

1	Matam (Senegal)		47.5°C
2	Chandrapur (India)		45.8°C
3	Bramhapuri (India)		45.6°C
4	Chauk (Myanmar)		45.5°C
5	Jacobabad (Pakistan)		45.1°C
6	Nawabshah (Pakistan)		45.1°C
7	Kedougou (Senegal)		44.5°C
8	Nagpur Sonegaon (India)		44.5°C
9	Tambacounda (Senegal)		44.4°C
10	Durg (India)		44.2°C