Research on Arabian Sea Cyclones by Vag.Shitij Jain.
I have conducted a research and have found that post monsoon months i.e. in October and November, the cyclones/depressions crossing Gujarat from Arabian sea have decreased considerably as compared with 100 years ago.
When compared to late 19th century period, from 1892 year to 1916 year 13 cyclones/depressions formed in Arabian sea in Oct & Nov month out of which 4 cyclones crossed Gujarat. This works out to 31%.
From 1936 to 1960 20 systems formed out of which 8 systems made landfall over Gujarat/konkan which comes to whopping 40%!!!!! And just 2 cyclones managed to move to Oman rest all died in sea itself!
But in recent years from 1998 to 2022, 31 cyclones/depressions have formed in Arabian sea out of which 5 systems have managed to made landfall into Gujarat that comes to only 16%.
1 comment:
2nd cyclone after biparjoy, super excess SWM Gujarat yet another cyclone?Let us hope not. Biparjoy brought drought and failure of SWM for southern India. 2nd Arabian sea cyclone may again spoil much awaited fragile NEM for SE India.
A cyclone might be brewing in the Arabian Sea next week, which may affect coastal areas of Gujarat, said veteran weather forecaster Ambalal Patel who had predicted cyclone Biporjoy and its date, well over a year ago in writing.
Informing about the probable cyclone, Patel said, “Movement might be observed in the Arabian Sea on October 16th, and a low-pressure system may form on October 18, potentially developing into a cyclonic storm from October 22nd to 24th. It is forecasted that the storm will move towards Oman, likely bringing heavy rain to Saurashtra. However, if the cyclone changes its trajectory and moves toward Gujarat, the entire state will experience heavy rainfall. Coastal areas of the state will experience heavy winds on October 17th.”
“Gujarat state is likely to witness rain at isolated places from October 15 to 20 due to a western disturbance,” Patel added.
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