Friday, September 06, 2019

Posted Friday evening:

As the BB-11 pulse moves West, we see enhanced heavy rains on Saturday in M.P. and Interior Maharashtra regions. 
Heavy rains in North Kokan, specially from Roha  till Vasai in the North..
Heavy rains expected in Saurashtra .

Mumbai: As the pulse interacts with the strong Westerlies and off shore trough,
Frequent heavy showers on Saturday, covering the region around Mumbai outer townships also. Pockets and some places may exceed 100 mms. 
Sunday too will have showers, but Rain intensity reducing on Sunday.

Pune can also expect frequent showers,  20-25 mms, on Saturday.

Aurangabad and Marathwada can expect good rains on Saturday/Sunday. Aurangabad days will be cool at 24c.

We see the first parameter and indication of Monsoon Withdrawal as the 200 hpa Jet Streams show a Westerly turn over Extreme North India from 10th September. (Not the withdrawal but first indication.)

12 comments:

rajesh said...

Note from PJ to me ...
To my Weather Guru, who taught me the basics of charts etc. Rajesh Kapadia of Vagaries of the Weather from Mumbai, l thank you for being my Teacher, though i could not speak for hours like we used to do, but the lessons learned from you will be for life time and its priceless.

sset said...

Very touching note - Guru - Sishya (Krishna-Arjun)

Rajesh Sir- Good to know monsoon withdrawl indication.. We require North East Monsoon for desert South East India. Seems Maharashtra has received 2 years worth of rain in 3 months! Absolutely No Sun - if rains continue then Mumbai/Konkan will catch epidemics!

Many blogger differ in opinion India driest place -west rajisthan or Rayalseema.

Taken from Skymet - post 2009 RAJ has never encountered monsoon failures or droughts - Rayalseema almost 4 out 5 years are drought!

According to meteorologists, the state doesn’t see many Monsoon failures. The last failure was seen in 2009 when drought was declared pan India and during that time West Rajasthan was deficient by a huge margin of 42%. The deficiency in East Rajasthan was 31%.

If we see the records, then thereafter, i.e. post-2009 no such failures have been recorded. Simultaneous good performance has been witnessed more than once.

In the years 2011, East and West Rajasthan were rain surplus by 35% and 52%, respectively. East and West Rajasthan in 2013 were again surplus by 26% and 29%, respectively. Similarly, in 2016, East Rajasthan was surplus by 32%, while the excess in West Rajasthan was 20%.

Coming to the present scenario East and West Rajasthan are rain surplus by 41% and 20%, respectively. Along with this, the average rain for the month of September for East and West Rajasthan is 41% and 99.7%, respectively.

If we look at the outlook, then the rains are expected to continue in East Rajasthan while rains will now reduce significantly over the western parts of Rajasthan.

sset said...

Heavy rains over Navi Mumbai!

It is amusing people spend millions of dollars for satellites missions - quest to find water on Moon, Mars....
They do not think about interlinking nations rivers. If present trend continues Modi government should prioritize about linking MAHA Konkan rivers, lakes with Desert South East India - specially places dependent on North East Monsoons - requires immediate attention. It is sad to see millions of gallons of rivers in Maharashtra is emptying into sea other side south east India drought continues.

Nimish Thaker said...

As predicted Rajeshbhai, very heavy rains started since the last 45 minutes at Juhu. Looks like the rain misery will continue today and tomorrow. This season just does not seem to end.

sridu said...

extremely heavy rain fall in thane now for the last 3 hours close to 100 mm ..

sset said...

What is reason for 10 Bay systems to cross exactly same trajectory - central India, Maharashtra, Gujarat, RAJ ? Bay system was too north - even North Andhra - Hyderabad has not receive much rain. Seems SWM 2019 was tailor made only for MAHA,GUJ,RAJ.MP. Gujarat is in large excess 100% excess!
September is supposed to be rainiest month for Bangalore - not a single drop has fallen! No heavy spells since june. Monsoon has failed in lower latitudes of southern India.

Unknown said...

SSET, you find satellite missions amusing ? How can you belittle the efforts of our scientists? Those people who toil tirelessly for missions that are so sensitive with very low chances of success. And you compare this with interlinking of rivers ??? Please have some basic courtesy if not pride for our brilliant scientists. I know you habitually make such comments against fellow bloggers but leave our outstanding scientists out of this. And please tender an immediate apology for making such an insensitive comment on a day of such enormity for those selfless people.

Suresh

shiekhz said...

One of the great monsoon for karachi it was....

sset said...

For Maharashtra centimeters has become millimeters.

sset said...

Navi Mumbai, Thane areas had record breaking rains since june.... broken all records 4 months of non-stop rain absolutely no sunshine .... this is dangerous ! Insane pounding Navi Mumbai since last 3-4 days.... like waterfalls.

Suresh: Many times your comments were also no less. I have deep respect for ISRO scientist. Infact 1 one of senior ISRO scientist (Dr. A.S. Kiran Kumar) is part of 'save Cauvery - rally for rivers'.

https://www.ishaoutreach.org/en/cauvery-calling/board-members

Point was in a simple way - when we have probable alternative approaches why go so far.... Research may be for many reasons. First we have to solve local problems, farmers issues, drought issues... anyways.

sset said...

I have no guilty in admitting
'Interlinking of rivers = SWM gaint Maharashtra with NEM - South East India (near desert) is greatest service to mankind,humanity,food,water,farmers rather than space missions!
Interlinking of rivers is a huge multi years effort - involves massive science and technology - this is need of hour. This needs to be done with proper massive tree plantation.
MAHA has taken right step - 50 crore trees planted in 3 years!

Unknown said...

SSET you still do not apologise and then you say my comments are no less. I challenge you to dig out last 10 years archives and post such a comment from my side,

Your biggest problem is discrimination of North or West versus South and in any other blog you would have been long banned.. You misuse Rajesh.s nice and gentle approach and post comments out of the way. Space programmes and research are completely independent of other problems and they have a great bearing on our security and many other issues. As common people we do not and should not have access to all such reasons of space programmes.. That is why your comment is very disparaging and insensitive against our scientist and completely out of context.

Suresh

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