Wednesday, September 04, 2019


12 comments:

KHYATI PANDIT said...

What's the forcaste for Mumbai for tomorrow n next coming days....it's sacry rains...when will we get respite

KHYATI PANDIT said...

When will rains ease of Mumbai...why no such prediction in blog ..of severe weather

Unknown said...

Rajesh, What are the highest seasonal rainfall amounts for Mumbai ? Top 5, which years ? Thanks.

Suresh

Abizer kachwala said...

Sir,what about Nagothane any reduction or almost same...severe floods here ..please answer

pravin said...

U missed the bus this time in your prediction

Unknown said...

Hi Rajesh,

A difficult question. We have had 3 incidences of extreme rain in Mumbai this season each crossing 200 mm in a 24 hour period. Though I have followed Vagaries and other forecasts too, no model has been able to correctly forecast this intensity this year. What is the reason for this ? Is it due to some climate pattern change or is the accuracy of the models creating an error ? Could you please explain ?

Suresh

rajesh said...

Refer to all:

Vagaries blog had initially given a "Latest Snippet" forecast on 31st Aug Sunday of "increase in rain " from Tuesday 3rd. Again on Monday 2nd, we issued a fresh snippet warning the "One and Half Days Ganapati" of being hampered on Tuesday due to heavy rains FROM Tuesday thru Thursday...Frequency increase was also given in Hindi.

Yes, we estimated (or under estimated ) the quantum...mentioned 30-40 mms...and what we had (average) was 90 mms on Tuesday and 120 mms ( i said average) on Wednesday. The highest being at Scruz with 242 mms and 73 mms at Colaba.

The sudden very heavy bursts in some regions was due to "Micro Weather" Votice forming. Forming in the trough, the Vortice caused by sudden unpredictable divergence in the upper air gives unprecedented heavy rains in large patches. Trough strengthening was expected , but not local Vortex forming embedded in trough.
Vagaries regrets the under estimation inconvenience caused. Though overall rain was expected to increase.

Rains likely to reduce from Thursday thru Friday.
Watching the BB10 coming now.

The highest total at Scruz is 3785 mms in 1958 and 3482 at Colaba in 1954.

Rajesh

Vinod Desai said...

Sir,
3785 is year total or till september.How doed rest of september look for mumbai and marathwada.

Nimish Thaker said...

Hi Rajeshbhai, with all humility, few of my observations with the Mumbai Rains:
1. Mirco weather as mentioned by you is a key feature in Mumbai and hence that needs to form the foundation of forecasts - the concept of 'Now Casts' is completely missing in India. IMD issues a RED warning in the afternoon yesterday, by which time 90% of rainfall event had occurred. Not surprisingly its not rained much since then.
2. Average rainfall over a large coastal city with varied topography like Mumbai has only academic relevance as the rain figures vary very heavily. Reinforcing the point of Micro Weather as made above.
3. Usage of Doppler radars for forecasting especially now casting should be high - that's the only source which tells if a sudden vortex has formed and the direction of cloud movements

Hilariously after IMD's RED alert (which has now become a sad pattern after heavy rains) - Schools & Colleges are closed today and it's hardly rained so far!!

Sarfaraj khan said...

Sir what your views about BB10 around mumbai?

shiekhz said...

Hello sir, any possibility for karachi?

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Lamaj, a station in Satara District of Maharashtra reaches  10426 mms of rain this monsoon season  Highest in India