Friday, September 20, 2019

Posted Saturday Morning:
AS-2 is now Well Marked Low. Tracking slowly W/NW.
Heavy rains in Coastal Saurashtra.

Mumbai: Saturday /Sunday periods of sunshine with a couple of passing showers.

Pune getting ready for some showers on Tuesday.
Posted Friday Morning:
Rainfall till 8.30 am Friday 20th: Colaba 81 mms, Malabar Hill 57 mms, Nariman Point 50 mms, Vagaries 46 mms, CSMT 40 mms, Worli 35 mms, Santa Cruz 3 mms. 
Compiled by Vagarian Abhijit.
So, Thursday Day/Night rainfall more concentrated in South and Central Mumbai  (40-80 mms).

Localised flooding in Sion, Kurla and Mahalaxmi.

Arabian Sea Low forms as AS-2..expected to track W/NW.

Mumbai: Low will bring strong gusty winds to Mumbai on Friday and Saturday. As the AS-2 moves away, Rainfall quantum decreasing for Mumbai from Saturday afternoon. (Friday fore cast given below & in snippets. (As showers Frequency increased).

Pune rains decreasing from Saturday. Can increase again by Tuesday as UAC expected in Marathwada/South Madhya Maharastra by 25th.

High pressure domination at 850 seen over West Rajasthan/Sindh. other criteria except 200 hp Jet streams fulfilled for withdrawal. Expect to fall in line in 2 days.


NilaY Wankawala said...

Dear Rajesh sir, you are always on your toes- one gets latest updates here all the time- all contribtutors to the blog are always posting updates on weather and data continuously and are very perfect in their work-

Khan Gazanfar said...

Well done Kapil sahab
Ur prediction is always right

sset said...

IMD fails vagaries wins !

Any idea about NEM ? My place Rayalseema eagerly awaiting for rains after 4-5 years of drought. Recent UAC brought some hope to farmers.

Unknown said...

Hi Rajesh,

This time I need to compliment you on a forecast that you did not give. When most weather experts predicted a very heavy rainfall for Mumbai from Thursday to Saturday period, you never gave such a hyped forecast. And you were spot on. You can capture the Vagaries of Weather well indeed ! You continue to delight us.


Unknown said...

Rajesh, to add on from the previous note, it has also been a delight to watch the SWM in its grand glory this year. It has touched every part of India step by step. I know North West and North East India have lagged behind probably but I suppose that is exactly Vagaries of Weather as you term the blog. But overall for the country, I hope there is enough water especially for the agriculture sector. Most farmers should be happy I think barring some regions of scanty rainfall. This SWM has been outstanding, nature at its best (but cannot forget the people affected by floods and hope normalcy is restored in those regions),

Let's hope SWM signs off with a flourish over the next few weeks.


sset said...

Lucky Gujarat - has seen cyclone Vayu during start of SWM, continuous Multiple UACs during middle of SWM and now depression/low during end of SWM. What else is required for surplus++ GUJ ?

Southern rains have become quite- will NEM start on time? SWM seems to stay till October (which is not good)

Huge climate changes and twist we see during 2019 - Apart from MAHA being world wettest place, Rayalseema/TN being most driest places in India, new entry is Arabian Sea is becoming hyperactive every passing year - will this impact NEM ??

Cumulus arjun said...

Marathwada has done a good job from reducing its deficit to -13% from -28% little more than the month ago only. Do u expect more rains there before the monsoon ends?????

Unknown said...

South India receives normal rainfall during South West Monsoon so far. All Southern Regions. Please refer to the latest IMD link to the rainfall map for correct information\Rainfall_Maps\Cumulative\Subdivision_Rainfall_Map\SUBDIVISION_RAINFALL_MAP_COUNTRY_INDIA_cd.JPG&landingpage=landing

North regions lagging behind.


sset said...

Will low pressure / depression off Gujarat coast instead of moving towards Oman recurve towards RAJ/GUJ just like Cyclone Vayu - whole SWM withdrawl will lapse?

Saurabh said...

You are right Suresh.
Not one subdivision of south india has received below normal rain fall.
Not one subdivision of north india has received above normal rainfall. The deviations in north india are 42 percent below normal in Haryana to 9 percent below normal in Punjab.

If some one goes by the comments on this blog they may reach the opposite conclusion.

I just dont understand the objectives of this disinformation campaign.

Saurabh said...

Hi Rajesh
Monsoon withdrawal refuses to start. This is not making much to difference to the rainfall deficits in north india though.

This needs your expert analysis. Please take out some time and explain this strange behaviour.

Strong Western Disturbance is seen affecting the country and the subcontinent. Heavy rain and snow reported from Himalayas, and rain/thunder...