vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather since 55 years
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Arjun: Happy Divali..Seems that many conditions are not favouring the NEM this year. After a poor onset, not enough pulses and systems are originating in the Bay. The creation of systems "in stu" are not favorable and the South China Sea memento is weak.May be possible that a few WDs will make the winter in the NW and North revive after good snows around 4th November. A couple of WDs will change the scene. We will see drops in the minimum temps inn N/NW and Central India.The Bay Low has formed and seems on the way to deepen. Will get well marked and deepen more as it tracks towards the TN coastline. Dry weekend for the sub continent with lows around 10c in the plains of North India and 20-22 c in Mumbai, warm day at 35/36c for Mumbai... and 14/15c minimum in Pune.Mandla in M.P. dropped to 6c on Friday morning and Khajuraho to 7c. Alwar was 8c...
Happy new year to you Rajesh sir and thanks for your forecast sir!
Looks like This will be the most horrible monsoon for Chennai ever .
All eyes on bay system -will it happen or not happen, it is like ICU operation.South East India has already become desert - successive north east monsoon failures. High time Indian geography is updated - environment minister take action to overcome desertification.https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/entire-anantapur-declared-drought-hit/article25184532.ece2018 in spite of being nearing el-nino and near +IOD still NEM remains elusive and with season already ending next year 2019 will be no better. Either system is weak or goes to north eastern states or goes to arabian sea. Prolonged duration of south west monsoon and useless intense cyclones to orissa,central india is taking its toll on feeble onset of north east monsoon.
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And no rain anywhere...