Monday, December 17, 2018

Posted Monday 2.30 pm IST:

BB-14 makes landfall in A.P. near Kakinada and Yanam. Officially crossed and making landfall.
But, estimated core winds speed was 30 knts, less than the IMD cyclone norm and in the Deep Depression category.
(Vagaries prediction of Landfall below Cyclone norm was mentioned on 12th December.)

The system weakened due to unfavourable SST and drier air near the coast. 
Kakinada received 72 mms from 8.30 am-2.30 pm Monday, and Vizag 70 mms in the same period.
Vijaywada received 242 mms in previous 24 hrs ended 8.30 am Monday, and 14 mms on Monday in 9 hrs.

The system grazed the TN coast and went Northwards due to the favourable upper air divergence.
Expected to weaken fast and track NE inland.

11.30 pm IST


sset said...

If this trend of NEM failure continues for next few years over south east India - people soon need to vacate Chennai, many areas of TN will have agriculture abandoned, mass migration to other states. Same holds with south Andhra - Rayalseema, Anantapur - total barren.
Great tragedy to see system which originated from south Bay, Tamil Nadu, South Andhra should have been benefited - instead other states orissa (already snatched Titli system), MP, Maharashtra - vidarbha.

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology ENSO wrap up

Issued 18 December 2018

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

Warm Pacific Ocean but no corresponding change in weather and climate patterns

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, despite ocean temperatures being at El Niño levels. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT.

The term El Niño–Southern Oscillation refers to the interaction between the tropical Pacific Ocean (El Niño) and its overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation), which together produce a global influence on weather and climate. While tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are currently at El Niño levels, atmospheric indicators—such as cloudiness, pressure patterns, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and trade winds—have generally remained neutral.

This means the ocean and atmosphere are not reinforcing each other, or coupled, and it is this coupling that defines and sustains an ENSO event, and results in widespread shifts in global weather and climate.

The natural seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific SSTs and cloud means the likelihood of an ENSO event developing during mid-summer is lower than at other times of year. This is because the difference in SSTs across the Pacific Basin eases towards a minimum in late summer to autumn. Late developing El Niño events do occur, such as in 2006–07 and 2009–10, although there is no record of one starting in January.

Most models indicate SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to remain near or above El Niño levels until at least the middle of 2019. However, models typically have less skill when forecasting through autumn. If SSTs did maintain their current anomalous warmth through summer, it would increase the chance of El Niño emerging in 2019.

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has ended, and neutral IOD conditions prevail. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.

More information

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Next update expected on 8 January 2019

Wednesday 6.30 pm IST