Yesterday evening/night Thunderstorm lashed many parts of western Maharashtra Districts, Ghats section, interior Konkan & isolated part of Marathwada region.
Some Rainfall ending 8.30am today (05-11-18):
Ahmednagar Dist data in mms:
Nashik dist in mms:
Chalisgaon (Jalgaon) 17
Ghats & Surroundings in mms:
Mulshi dam 75
Pawana dam 49
Pimpalgaon joga dam 45
Andhra dam 33
Manikdoh dam 14
Dimbhe dam 14Kalmodi 13
Dhom Balkawadi 10
Interior Konkan in mms:
Some inputs helped by Vagarian Shivkumar
Seems NorthEast Monsoon instead of giving rains to south east India is giving rains to Maharashtra! Hope it is not repeat of 2013 - all systems results in duds and rained only in NE India and Maharashtra resulting in terrible drought for Tamil Naidu and Andhra Pradesh.
After this round of rains the Maharashtra rainfall is 78% below normal from 1st October till date. The case of North East India is similar.
It is not a case of rain getting diverted from one place to another, the rainfall since September is way below normal almost everywhere.
Refer to link
Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology
Issued 7 November 2018
The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.
El Niño ALERT continues; positive Indian Ocean Dipole
The tropical Pacific Ocean continues developing towards El Niño, while in the Indian Ocean, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT, meaning there is approximately a 70% chance of El Niño occurring in the coming months; about triple the normal likelihood.
Ocean temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean have been at positive IOD levels now for two months. As a result, 2018 will be considered a positive IOD year. A positive IOD during spring increases the chance of below average rainfall for southern and central Australia, and can reinforce the effects of a developing, or fully formed, El Niño. El Niño effects in Australia over summer include higher fire risk, greater chance of heatwaves, and fewer tropical cyclones.
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed to El Niño levels over the past fortnight. However, atmospheric indicators of El Niño are largely near normal, suggesting that the ocean and atmosphere are not yet reinforcing each other, or 'coupled'. This reinforcement is critical in any El Niño developing and becoming self-sustaining.
International climate models suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, increasing the possibility of coupling occurring in the coming months. Seven out of eight climate models suggest sea surface temperatures will remain above El Niño thresholds until at least March 2019.
Model outlooks suggest the positive IOD will decay during November. IOD events typically have little influence on Australian climate from December to April.
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Next update expected on 20 November 2018
May thousands of lamps light up your life with endless happiness, richness, health and wealth forever😁.
Wishing Rajesh sir and entire Vagaries team a very
This year's northeast monsoon for Chennai ..might end up on a deficit note . the
useless NEM system - not a single drop has fallen over TN,AP.
Happy Diwali Rajesh sir!
Sir what are ur views on upcoming NEM system and Mumbai winter?
Arjun: Happy Divali..Seems that many conditions are not favouring the NEM this year. After a poor onset, not enough pulses and systems are originating in the Bay. The creation of systems "in stu" are not favorable and the South China Sea memento is weak.
May be possible that a few WDs will make the winter in the NW and North revive after good snows around 4th November. A couple of WDs will change the scene. We will see drops in the minimum temps inn N/NW and Central India.
The Bay Low has formed and seems on the way to deepen. Will get well marked and deepen more as it tracks towards the TN coastline. Dry weekend for the sub continent with lows around 10c in the plains of North India and 20-22 c in Mumbai, warm day at 35/36c for Mumbai... and 14/15c minimum in Pune.
Mandla in M.P. dropped to 6c on Friday morning and Khajuraho to 7c. Alwar was 8c...
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