There have been no updates recently (last 4 days) as i have excused myself and went for a (birding) trip...I know its been anxious and readers were waiting for the ever puzzling Monsoon update.
The Monsoon anxiety is "self confusing" and need not be puzzling, as it seems the South West Monsoon is following our schedule date.
The South West Monsoon arrival has been announced by the Sri Lanka Met Dept. on 25th May. There were quite heavy showers in Sri Lanka on 27th May, many places getting more than 100 mms, including Colombo. So, from vagaries, I would say that the Monsoon has established itself over Sri Lanka on 27th May 2016.
Monsoon has also advanced into the North Andaman Sea.
For Advance along West Coast, all parameters are now getting favourable. What parameters do we look at now ? The height of the West-South West winds, The speed of these winds, The OLR readings in the south-Central and South East Arabian Sea, the Upper Troposphere Humidity and of course my favourite, the 200 hpa jet streams.
From current developments, it is possible that the South West Monsoon may advance into Kerala around 4th/5th June.Quick advance along Karnataka Coast is possible thereafter.
Pre Monsoon Thunder Showers likely in Mumbai and North Konkan from 4th-6th June.Light rains from isolated passing clouds likely till 4th in parts of Mumbai.
Pune can get its pre Monsoon Thunder Showers from 1st/2nd June.