Monday, May 16, 2016

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Posted Tuesday Night:
Severe Heat in Pakistan as Larkana reached 50.6c on 17th May. Moen-jo-daro recorded 50c and Jacobabad 49.5c.
Hottest in India was Barmer aat 47.5c.

BB-1 tracks slowly Northwards and is located at 12N and 81E..120 kms E/SE of Chennai. Will track North, and as it passes Chennai, heavy rains expected along Chennai coast during the night of 17th. 
System will strengthen and track NE along the East coast.Subsequently, it may weaken in mid sea.

Posted Monday 16th Night:

BB-1 persisting with the core off the North-East Coast of Sri Lanka. Will now move towards the North Tamil Nadu Coast and strengthen. Will subsequently move and deviate towards NE as mentioned earlier.
Places along North Tamil Nadu coast can get rainfall upto 100 mms or more from Tuesday Morning in next 24 hrs.

Chennai will get intermittent rains with thunder on Tuesday. Rainfall could be between 50-75 mms throughout the City from Tuesday morning in next 24 hrs. Squally winds upto 40-45 kmph likely.


Anand said...

will the system effect kolkata

Anand said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

Right now heavy rain n chennai. In bangalore its cloudy and totally still.

Hope in bangalore we get atleast 3 to 4 cms from this system.

Shitij said...

Rajesh sir if possible can you please provide the rainfall estimate for surat city also in your monsoon watch additional artile which you are going to publish on 20th May.

Hrishikesh said...

Mumbai pressure low at 1002mb at 3pm

Rajesh said...

Hrishikesh: Mumbai pressure can further drop to 1000 mb tomorrow.

The formation of an off shore trough at sea level seems sure now. The trough i mentioned earlier. Now, it seems more likely, if the off shore trough forms, that the pulse from BB-1 can get embedded and form another Low, AS-1 in the Arabian Sea. As was explained earlier.A pulse will push in the inland region as the system turns NE.

Shitij: Will respond to you in comments. Not in MW.

Anand Agarwal: This system will bring rain to Kolkata, around Thursday, as it deviates from the current path towards NE.

BB-1 is tracking North at Depression strength.. Now BB-1 is E/SE off Chennai, at 11N and 81.5E , but will cross 13N and turn NE.

Zohair said...

but the MJO is weakning sir, can a cyc form and intensify without MJO wave?

Mohsin mulla said...

Rajesh sir,
I think BB1 not become cyclone..track nort north east as deprission and may be land fall in mayanmar or south more thing Sir bbc weather predict sw monsoon on last week of May in kerela..can AS-1 sluggish the strength of monsoon or it may boost the monsoon flow??ur view on both query.

Hrishikesh said...

Sir what's ur forecast on Mumbai

sset said...

What is reason for BB1 curve towards NE and not move inland?

Rajesh said...

Moshin/zohair: Vagaries has not mentioned of BB-1 becoming a cyclone. In fact initially it was mentioned it may weaken in the Bay.
AS-1 will not yet affect the Monsoon as the date is still around 15 days away for Kerala to get Monsoon. At the most delay for Kerala around 4th/5th June as given by Vagaries.

sset: I see the curving due to STR position and wind shear in Western segment resisting the track.

Hrishikesh: Waiting for a few days to see the arrival of the Low, but i see some rain end of this week in Mumbai

Unknown said...

rajesh sir,is there a chance of rain in pen,panvel,nagothane in the coming days?

Rajesh said...

Mumbai will get cloudy weather on Thursday. Light rains and cloudy weather on Friday 20th and 21st Saturday.
Same , light rains expected on 19th and 20th for Pen Panvel regions.

 26th Day Temperatures..Mumbai cooler than Pune,Nasik and Same as Mahabaleshwar