Saturday, May 14, 2016

Posted Saturday 14th May Afternoon:

BB-1 has descended as a weak low around 7N and 84E. Currently estimated at 1004 mb and winds at core estimated at 25 knts. The rain convective seems to be forming rather slowly.

But upper air divergence is a good sign for further development of Low.Vertical wind shear is also low.

BB-1 will strengthen in another 24-36 hrs in the current location, possibly showing a very small North movement.
From 16th, expected to track N/NW towards the North TN coast and may graze the Southern A.P. coast.

From Monday,heavy showers expected in  T.N. and Southern Coastal A.P, Kerala can expect enhanced rainfall also from Monday 16th.

Good inflow of moisture and thunder showers in Central interior peninsula regions ( Interior South Madhya Mah, Interior Karnatak and as mentioned Tamil Nadu).
 

Chennai can expect thunder showers on Monday 16th, and increasing intensity on Tuesday, with more on Wednesday.

Can AS-1 also form ? 

As BB-1 moves along the Tamil Nadu/A.P. Coast early next week, there will be strong Westerly inflow of moist winds along the Kerala and Karnatak coast. There are always chances, in such a situation, with a UAC persisting (and trough) in the South Arabian Sea, of the Arabian Sea system also forming a Low next week. But we shall wait and watch for this complicated development.

South West Monsoon expected to advance into South Andaman on 15th/16th May.

1 comment:

Vijay Anand said...

Very confusing system. Every model giving different path. Hope it crosses south -central TN.