SWM has further moved into Northern Andaman Sea.
Cross Equatorial Flow has picked up considerably in the Bay and Arabian Sea. Winds over 40 knts are seen gushing Northwards off the Somali Coast, and upto 40 knts winds, rushing towards NE, are also seen in the Bay.
Winds off the Sri Lanka coast have picked up considerably.
Today's SST map is reproduced here to show the Sea temperature falling sufficiently along the Somali coast. It is presently around 18/20c.
Now, this difference with the Central Arabian Sea plays a key role in cloud formations off the Western Coastline of India in the Central Arabian Seas. The SST along the Somali coast will rapidly fall to around 17c/18c in the next 10 days.
But the current drop is sufficient to help form Monsoon clouds around the Maldives. Cloud formation off Kerala is gathering, and in next 24 hrs, wind speed along the Sri Lanka coast is estimated at 40knts (in gusts).
A slight fall is seen in the Bay waters SST.
The Seasonal Low seems to have strengthened. We see today's pressure at 996 mb. Getting gradually ready enough to create a gradient to pull up SW winds into the mainland.
The day temperatures on the Sub-Continent Northern plains are on the normal side from this week with the average the day's highs are around 40c. Currently the days have dropped to 5-7c below normal in North India...This is due to back to back Wds...M-4 and M-5.
Across in Pakistan' Sindh region, the core area for the formation of the low, the highest has already crossed 50c in Mid May.
WDs should slow down now, as the jet streams at 200 hpa are re-grouping fast into position.
The Jet Stream Easterlies are almost upto the 19N line, and the "High" formation is taking shape in Arabian Sea. This Anti Cyclone will move Eastwards...Expected placement of this "High" should be inland towards Chattisgarh for perfect position.
The Bay sector SWM has been stagnant, and not picking up as expected from a "setting in" Monsoon.
In the next 3/4 days, SWM, could advance further into the Bay.
Changes in 850 hpa winds (anomaly) show a reviewed MJO pattern. Weak in our seas till mid June..and thereafter going back to neutral as the wave moves Eastwards.
-SWM can advance into Kerala by 4th/5th June
-Possibly into Coastal Karnataka. S.I. Karnatak, and TN regions by the 8th/9th of June.
-South Konkan & Goa, Southern A.P. 11thJune, and
-North Konkan, Mumbai, Telengana, A.P, Parts of Eastern Odisha and Parts of West Bengal by 13th/14th June.(see MW-3 Map here)
-SWM advance in to NE states by first week of June.
Keep Checking Monsoon Advance Position in vagaries. Further Advance into Central, Northern India and Pakistan will follow.
(This Monsoon chase is my personal view, and my personal analysis and deciphering is done as per my assumptions. Should not be used for commercial purposes).