Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Precarious Situation in Marathwwada (Maharashtra):
Total Water storage, all Dams and Reservoirs in the region, as on 20th May, shows only 112 Mcum...That is ONLY 1% of the Projected Capacity !!
2015 though also a drought year, was better and showed 8% (601 Mcum)Storage.
Source: Water Resources Dept, Mah. Govt.

Posted 24th May Afternoon.
South West Monsoon is Advancing into Maldives...Kahdhoo received 28 mms and Male 14 mms. Winds in Male at around 30 kmph.
Very Gusty winds ( 70 kmph) warning issued for Maldives.

South West Monsoon will advance into Sri Lanka in next 48 hrs.

(As per Vagaries)

23 comments:

rajesh said...

Drizzles and light rains in different parts of Central and South Mumbai on 23rd evening and night. Colaba recorded 2.4 mms.

abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,imd has issued warning of thundersquall tonight in mumbai,what is your forecast for roha,pen regions?will it be windy.

SVT said...

Back here after long time. When will Mumbai get first proper pre monsoon evening thunderstorm and then Monsoon rain?

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Neeraj said...

on time , it seems. hope the rest of progress is also on time.

Nilay Wankawala said...

SOURCE : May 24, 2016, 04.06 PM | Source: CNBC-TV18

Adieu El Nino, Hola La Nina: Skymet ups monsoon forecast to 109%

Skymet Vice President - Meteorology GP Sharma says the El Nino effect is now close to neutral. The dreaded El Nino effect, the global weather phenomenon of warm oceanic temperatures associated with dry monsoon spells in the subcontinent, is about to end and may give way to its opposite, the La Nina, says private forecast Skymet. This has prompted the agency to up its India monsoon forecast to 109 percent of the long period average (LPA) from 105 percent earlier. "The El Nino, which disrupted the monsoon pattern over the past two years, has been gradually declining," Skymet's Vice President - Meteorology GP Sharma told CNBC-TV18. "It is close to neutral now. Pacific waters are fairly cool now. The oceanic data suggests monsoon will be better than average. Shortly, we could even switch over the La Nina (cooler-than-average oceanic temperatures)" He added that the monsoon may cover most parts of the country by June, barring regions like Rajasthan. According to Skymet, the probabilities for the monsoon as of today are: - 25 percent chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110 percent of LPA) - 37 percent chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110 percent of LPA) - 30 percent chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104 percent of LPA) - 5 percent chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95 percent of LPA) - 3 percent chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 percent of LPA) Over the past two drought years, Skymet and its government counterpart IMD have had mixed fortunes on getting their initial forecasts correct. In 2014, Skymet forecast a drought while the IMD said monsoon would be neutral. Last year, the Skymet forecast a normal monsoon while the IMD expected a drought year. This year, both forecasters expect an above-normal monsoon.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/adieu-el-nino-hola-la-nina-skymet-ups-monsoon-forecast-to-109_6735021.html?utm_source=ref_article

rajesh said...

abizer: I will surely mention if and when the pre monsoon thunder showers are to start...Will mention when necessary.

SVT: Mentioned my estimate in MW-3 Additional. Should expect proper pre monsoon thunder in Mumbai around 3rd/4th June.

rajesh said...

Heavy drizzles here in South Mumbai now.( Tuesday Night)

Narayanan Ky said...

Good to know SWM is touching our Indian shores in few days

abizer Kachwala said...

Heavy showers in nagothane(roha) today morning

SVT said...

thanks. So still week away from proper pre monsoon rains.

babar rana said...

Sir when start the premonsoon rains in sindh

Karan Kumbhar said...

Sir
When will post latest developments?

sset said...

am sure everybody will burst into laughter - yesterday night i had a dream vagaries published Mumbai total 4 months rain for 2016 - 3600 mm !

sset said...

Still AP telangana in heat wave - heat which started in Feb 2016 still continuing longest running in India - Ramagundam 46c (something normal for AP - climatic change?)

Nilay Wankawala said...

well there seems to be delay in advancement of SWM into sri lanka ? I suppose its not yet reached there.

Hrishikesh said...

Sir my birthday is upcoming what's the forecast for 30th may for Mumbai ?

anant said...

well SSET i hope atleast this year you will comment something different than the following things
A) rayalseema lack of rain
B) navi mumbai roaring rains
C) Climate change
D) rains in gujarat and rajasthan _ desert turning into forests
E) South india turning into desert

Please spare other readers from the same old rants which you been saying in last 4+ years.

My sincere request to Rajesh Ji , for once refrain from allowing SSET posting same things over and again, i come to comments section to hear other reader comments on weather , local station updates and interesting queries , not to see SSET repetitive comments

Thank you ,

Ananth

Karan Kumbhar said...

I agree with an anant sir
This year heat wave has spared no region
Rajasthan reached 51. Odisha and west Bengal broke records. Even Ahmadabad recorded all time high.
So just talking about andhra and Karnataka is unreasonable.

megh kapale said...

Sir,has the monsoon reached srilanka

Vijayanand said...

Heavy rain in parts of bangalore last night. My place received 67 mm of rain. Rain started at 6pm and lashed till 8.00 pm.
IMD bangalore got only 7mm

South , South East and South west parts of the city battered.

My place Gottigere at 205 mm for the pre-monsoon period. 38, 42 and 67 mm of rain in the last 10 days has changed the situation completely.

Normal pre-monsoon is at 180mm. We have exceeded that.

Vijayanand said...

Agreed and correctly said ananth.

Hope SSET provides something new this year :)

rajesh said...

Sorry everyone for the late replies:
Hrishikesh: An isolated shower from a passing cloud will continue in parts of Mumbai till 4th.

babar rana: for Sindh its a long term forecast. But no pre monsoon rains till middle of June at least.