Monday, May 09, 2016

Posted 11th Night:
A UAC at 500 hpa  level forms in the South Arabian Sea, approximately at 5N and 73E....

Posted 9th May Monday Night:
A Low Pressure is likely to form in the South Arabian Sea . 
On 14th May, it will form approximately in the 4N and 73E region, around the Maldives.
The system is poised to deepen , and seeing the position of the 200 mb Sub Tropical Ridge, seems, as of now, system will deepen and move North wards off the Kerala coast.

Queries will come up: if it is going to disturb the Monsoon ? Well, i think, looking at the dates, the whole system could rain off and be over by the 22nd/23rd...so, Monsoon over Kerala will/can arrive as mentioned in MW-3 (2).
Will keep posting the developments here..

Maximum temps anomaly on 8th May..Heat wave shrinks ....

Rainfall upto Monday 9th Morning.....

16 comments:

Shitij said...

Whether the system will cross kerala coast or it will continue to move northward along the west coast? ?

rajesh said...

Shitij: Difficult to say path now at this stage...but currently seems system will deepen move off the coast. Not crossing Kerala.

parshuram shinde said...

Cloudy weather in santacruz Mumbai..
What is your view sir..can Mumbai get rain today.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology


Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 10 May 2016

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

El Niño drawing closer to an end
The tropical Pacific Ocean has weakened to borderline El Niño-neutral levels. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean cooled further in the past fortnight, driven by cooler than average waters below the surface. Atmospheric indicators are also trending towards normal. Trade winds have been consistently near normal for some weeks. Typical El Niño cloud patterns are dissipating and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), while still negative, is steadily rising.

All international models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, with seven of eight models exceeding La Niña thresholds by September 2016. However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios.

Based on recent changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH. This means the likelihood of La Niña forming later in 2016 is around 50%.

Typically during La Niña, winter-spring rainfall is above average over northern, central and eastern Australia.

Very warm sea surface temperatures continue across large parts of the Indian Ocean. Likewise, ocean temperatures around Australia remain well above average. Warmth in these two regions may provide extra moisture for rain systems as they cross Australia during the coming months.

Rajesh Kumar said...

So, Heavy rain is for sure in Kerala.

abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,is the cyclone expected to track northwards?Will it affect maharashtra coast?Are pre monsoonal rains likely in mumbai and north konkan( including pen,roha)from 20th may? Mjo is turning positive.waiting for your views.

rajesh said...

abizer: I have not mentioned or stated anything about any cyclone. The words i wrote is that a Low will form and deepen. Next stage after "Low" is 'Well Marked Low" and then "Depression".
Expecting pre Monsoon showers on 20th May for Konkan is a very optimistic hope.But like i wrote, let us follow the developments.
I have given the pre monsoon rains ( MW-3) in Mumbai from 5th June...or early June at the most.

A trough of Low has formed in the Maldives area on 10th May.

Neeraj: The M-2 Western Disturbance which i was expecting on 12th May, in answer to your query of 5th May, is here and precipitating. Expected over your region by 12th May. Expecting heavy showers in West Nepal and uttarakhand.

Pradeep said...

Sir, that low off maldives is never going to happen. Already the action is shifted further east. Further the track to Kerala looks awkward too.

Neeraj said...

The WD is here, heavy-ish rain yesterday (tuesday), cool weather today, more rains expected. And it seems the bay is going to host the first low of the season (?) .

Abhijit said...

Today scattered TS activity reported around Western ghats around Pune/Nashik dist & on foothills of Thane & Raigad dist..
Some rainfall till 8.30pm(11-May-2016):
Panshet dam & Asane 43mm
Temghar 29mm
Ahupe 28mm
Bhutonde 27mm
Chakasman dam 26mm
Bhimashankar 25mm
Pavana dam 22mm
Bhattiwaghdara 20mm
Chinchwad 11mm
Kasarsai dam & Kumbheri 5mm
Pune & Nashik 4mm

Badlapur gets Thunderstorm & Dust storm with drizzling traceable rains at 5.30pm today & also same was on 9th May midnight..Whereas Karjat & Matheran gets measurable rain today & on 9th also..

Wasim Athar said...

A counter low is expected to form in south west Bay of bengal, there is still no consensus over its track, varying widely between orrisa and Myanmar. What's your take sir?

Pradeep said...

There will be only one low in SW BOB...lets not talk about Arabian Sea system for a while..

Vijayanand said...

Is there a depression forming in BOB. IMD charts are showing it. keaweather is abuzz with it.

Karan Kumbhar said...

Sir
Next MW date ?

abizer Kachwala said...

Rajesh sir,what about arabian sea low?

Hrishikesh said...

Mumbai pressure dropped to 1004mb today