Monday, April 25, 2016

Severe Heat continues in East, with Titlagarh at 46.0c being the hottest....The map shows the Eastern Region heat, and the Western Region with normal to below normal temperatures.

A Bifurcating Red Line is imposed on the Max Anomaly map (B).

From Tuesday, severe heat wave conditions abate from Karnataka, A.P. and Telengana. Day temperatures will drop 2/3c in these states from Tuesday. 

Severe heat wave prevails for a day on Tuesday in Odisha, and abates from Wednesday.
However, heat and hot conditions, with days above normal by 2/3c remain till Friday in Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal and East U.P.


The structural formation of the seasonal trough running through the peninsula was blocked due to a series of upper air WDs, and the formation of an "in shore " trough along the East Coast of India.. The "in shore" trough in the interiors of the East coast of India was the cause of the extreme heat running from West Bengal thru Odisha into A.P. and Telengana down to Karnataka.
The East coast trough becomes weak after Thursday 28th April, when the seasonal peninsula trough will be "allowed" and start to form.

Initially, it forms around Central Maharashtra (with Thunder showers in South Madhya Mah and Marathwada), and extends Southwards after a couple of days ( after Thursday).

Thence, after 1st/2nd May, the much needed and expected thunder showers in South ( Bangalore) and Central (N.I.Kar and South Mah) interior Peninsula, the heat relievers, will commence.


Bangalore: Local thunder showers brought the much needed relief to Bangalore on Monday. 20 mms was recorded in the afternoon/evening, and the city saw the temperature drop from a day's of 37.1c to 23.2c by 8.30 pm IST. Cloudy weather next 2 days, with a thunder shower or dust storm popping up in the vicinity. Days remain around 35c.

Kolkata: Hot conditions, with temperatures around 38-40c till Friday. A thunder shower expected in some parts and vicinity on Friday.

Below Post from Rohit:

Bizzare April 2016 till now  : 

  • Bangalore (Garden city ) records same average max temp for April month as Chennai Airport  !! 
  • Mumbai remains the mildest metro in April 
  • ( Mumbai past ten days .. 33 / 24 ,  Bengaluru .. 37.5 / 25 ) 
  • Hyderabad the hottest metro in April
  • Kolkata hotter than Delhi 
   Avg . max temp in c  (1 April - 25 April 2016)

20 comments:

rajesh said...

Muhammad Zohair..cooling trend of nino 1+2 is a indicator of cooling no doubt. And the main region for our concern to be observed is nino 3.4. But el nino is definitely cooling down and moving towards neutral by May/June.

Vijay Anand; Putting up a brief note tonite

Abhijit said...

Bangalore recorded 20mm rainfall till 8.30pm today & temp drops to 23.2c !! so city retaining it's natural AC tag..

sset said...

With all heat waves going - only mantra -
"Best time to plant trees was 20 years back, next best time is NOW"

I still feel much of southern India is entering into desertification cycle. AP is with 4 years of drought with maximum temperatures every year. Heat theory for good rains does not hold good at least for southern India (people may disagree). Elsewhere deserts of RAJ/GUJ seem to be shifting towards AP.

Rajesh sir - Your adjectives for Bangalore are absolutely wrong- It is dry,barren-garbage city. City environmentalist have already surveyed it has only few lakhs trees - BBMP/DBA/BMRCL have ruthlessly cut with no efforts for tree plantation - so now city stands at 40c. + all lakes converted to real estate + drains.

Mumbai city itself has 30lakhs of full grown massive trees - if trees of National parks (SGNP - world largest forest area within city),trees woods surrounding all mumbai lakes, mountain woods - count will exceed 50lakh trees.
Navi Mumbai,new thane - godhbunder side,yaoor hills are all thick forest areas - contribute another 50lakh trees.
Total tree count Mumbai,Navi Mumbai,Thane can be near 1 crore !!

rajesh said...

sset: You are right, but i used the old description of the "good old" Bangalore we have seen, and would like it to become.
Thanks for the tree count figures...very interesting and worth the knowledge.

Muhammad Zohair: the Low forming over Sindh is the core of the seasonal low.

Abhijit said...

On one side, country is under heat wave and many states facing their worst drought.. And other side NE India is under flooding before of monsoon only !!

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/assam-floods-affect-92000-arunachal-district-cut-off-2769996/

Vijay Anand said...

SSET: Your adjectives for Bangalore are absolutely wrong- It is dry,barren-garbage city. City environmentalist have already surveyed it has only few lakhs trees - BBMP/DBA/BMRCL have ruthlessly cut with no efforts for tree plantation - so now city stands at 40c. + all lakes converted to real estate + drains.

STOP THIS COMMENTS. This is cheap crap from you SSET.
For heavens sake discuss only weather details here.

YOU ARE JUST MISUSING RAJESH SIR'S TOLERANCE.

Vijay Anand said...

"Thence, after 1st/2nd May, the much needed and expected thunder showers in South ( Bangalore) and Central (N.I.Kar and South Mah) interior Peninsula, the heat relievers, will commence."

Wow. Thanks a ton.
Would rush to share the good news with my friends who have been pestering me rain grievance last few days :)

Rajesh Kumar said...

Finally , Bangalore will be again bangalored after 2nd May..
However, We witnessed history in making (Sunday Temp).

Nilay Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 26 April 2016

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up, ENSO Outlook and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.
El Niño enters its final weeks
The 2015–16 El Niño is in its last stages. Recent changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, suggest the likelihood of La Niña forming later in 2016 is around 50%, meaning the Bureau's ENSO Outlook is at La Niña WATCH.

Eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have cooled significantly in the past fortnight, and are now approaching neutral levels. As temperatures under the surface are below average, more surface water cooling is expected. However the atmosphere is only slowly responding to these changes, and hence the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness near the Date Line continue to fluctuate around El Niño thresholds.

Six of eight international climate models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will return to neutral levels within the next month. By September, seven of eight models suggest La Niña thresholds are likely. However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios.

La Niña is often, but not always, associated with above-average winter-spring rainfall over northern, central and eastern Australia.

Australia's climate is also being influenced by record warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean. The warmth in the Indian Ocean may provide extra moisture for rain systems as they cross Australia during the southern autumn.

ENSO Outlook

Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood
of an El Niño or La Niña developing.

The status is La Niña

rohit aroskar said...

Avg. temp(max/min) .. past 10 days ..

> Titlagarh (Orissa) .. 46.1 c / 25.7 c
> Kurnool (Andhra) .. 43.4 c / 30.2 c
> Arogyavaram (Andhra) ..39.7 c / 25.4 c

rohit aroskar said...

Avg. temp (max/min).. April 2016 (1 Apr till today)..

> Titlagarh (Orissa) .. 43.9 c / 24.6 c
> Kurnool (Andhra) .. 42.6 c / 29.4 c
> Arogyavaram (Andhra) ..38.9 c / 24.1 c

rohit aroskar said...

Avg. temp (max/min).. April 2016 (1 Apr till today)..

> Mahabaleshwar (Maha) : 33.4 c / 20.2 c
> Mumbai SCZ (Maha) : 33.4 c / 24.0 c
> Vengurla (Maha) : 33.7 c /23.1 c
> Aurangabad Airport (Maha) : 39.7 c / 24.5 c

> Rajkot (Guj) : 38.9 c / 23.3 c
> Surat (Guj) 36.8 c/ 25.3 c

> Pachmarhi (MP) :34.1 c /20.2 c

Majid Ahmad said...

Latest Update from Australian Bureau of Meteorology:

El Niño enters its final weeks

The 2015–16 El Niño is in its last stages. Recent changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, suggest the likelihood of La Niña forming later in 2016 is around 50%, meaning the Bureau's ENSO Outlook is at La Niña WATCH.
Eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have cooled significantly in the past fortnight, and are now approaching neutral levels. As temperatures under the surface are below average, more surface water cooling is expected. However the atmosphere is only slowly responding to these changes, and hence the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness near the Date Line continue to fluctuate around El Niño thresholds.
Six of eight international climate models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will return to neutral levels within the next month. By September, seven of eight models suggest La Niña thresholds are likely. However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios.
La Niña is often, but not always, associated with above-average winter-spring rainfall over northern, central and eastern Australia.
Australia's climate is also being influenced by record warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean. The warmth in the Indian Ocean may provide extra moisture for rain systems as they cross Australia during the southern autumn.

rohit aroskar said...

While Orissa and the East is burning hot.. Gopalpur (by the sea) is experiencing monsoon like temperatures..

Avg. temp(max/min) .. past 10 days ..

>> Gopalpur (Orissa) ..30.7 c / 24.7 c ( humid)

Gopalpur avg. for 1 April 2016 till now .. 31.4 c / 25.2 c

Nilay Wankawala said...

As per Australian government Bureau of meteorology -

"Six of eight international climate models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will return to neutral levels within the next month. By September, seven of eight models suggest La Niña thresholds are likely. However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios."

In most likely case May end will give us neutral scenario and thereafter if things go as forecasted by september 7 of 8 models suggesting La Nina Thresholds likely means SWM 2016 season in India (June to Sep) and LA Nina Development in tropical pacific ocean will occur simultaneously- are there any studies on such factor like a PRESENT LA NINA and A developing LA NINA with SWM occurance in india or coincidences where LA NINA is developing in tropical pacific ocean and its effect on SWM in India? I meant IS IT PRESENCE OF LA NINA HAS MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SWM PERFORMANCE OR EVEN A DEVELOPING LA NINA EVENT IS POSITIVE VIS A VIS NEUTRAL STATE?

Sir I hope my question is clear - sir can you throw some light on performance of SWM in a developing LA NINA state and FULL FLEDGED LA NINA PRESENT state?

Nilay Wankawala said...

THere is a mistake in my question it's 6 out of 8 and not 7 out of 8 models.fingers have slipped of adjacent keys.sorry for blunder.

rajesh said...

Nilay: There are many years when the ENSO develops into an event mid way thru our SWM. generally the El Nino develops fully around December, so in Aug/Sept period it is gaining, and normally in June/July could be neutral.
Even in the opposite stage, like this year, the neutral stage can happen around June.
As stated by vagaries in MW1 and MW2, we may see the neutral stage in the first half of the SWM

Normally, this would effect the SWM in a normally +ve way, and with Lan Nina forming later, we could get a prolonged SWM season.

But, remember, ENSO is only 1 parameter in determining the quantum of rains in Monsoon. Though there are 6-8 parameters, ENSO is a weighted factor.

We will follow the development of ENSO and write in MW3 and MW4.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Thanks a lot sir for your explanation...Appreciate ur quick replies here for all te queries raised by the readers. ..Thanks once again. ....

Abhijit said...

N.Konkan turns hot with North land breeze and heat wave in Interior N.Konkan !!

Some max temp from region today(27 April 2016)

Colaba 35.4c
Dahanu 35.9c
Alibaug 36.8c
Vagaries Club & Santacruz 38c

And now Interior region temps which was in heat wave today !!

Dombivli(private reading) 40.9c
Thane IMD AWS 41.2c
Badlapur (private reading) 41.3c
Karjat IMD AWS 43.3c

kako sehr said...

This is impressive work and data keeping