Wednesday, April 27, 2016


We look at the relationship between ENSO 3.4 and actual Monsoon from 1950 onwards...


The BROWN line represents the original 3 month moving average of monthly ENSO 3.4 data and the GREEN bars represent actual rainfall that is above or below normal...

LHS side is the actual ENSO 3.4 temp +/- normal
RHS side is the (1/100) of actual +/- normal rainfall (e.g if rainfall is 920mm in a particular year with normal at 890mm than a reading of 30mm above normal will show as 0.3 on the RHS axis).

(Puneet pointed out the discrepancy in the 1972 data which has been corrected. A column of previous year had transposed by error one year ahead... Thanks Puneet.)

As can be seen there is no one on one relationship between ENSO 3.4  and level of monsoon..but some level of correlation is possible/visible...there are some years when ENSO temps are at LA NINA levels but we had a bad monsoon and vice versa...






ENSO DATA from http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml (1950 to feb2016)

Monsoon data from IMD. (1950 to 2015)
 

3 comments:

Nilay Wankawala said...

ThankS for such an easy graph where we can understand the correlation. ...surely not the only factor which affects swm india but as Rajesh sir said weighted one amongst others....

Ankit patel said...

There is a big correction....you should write ENSO nino 3.4 temp anamoly insted of ENSO nino 3.4 temp....

GSB said...

Ankit if you read the post again I have mentioned ENSO 3.4 temo +/- normal, which hopefully means the same thing...;)