Further Analysis of the parameters as discussed in MW-1.
1. Seasonal Low: As the average day/night temperatures in the Central Sub-Continent areas have not shown warming up recently, the -ve factor from the previous MW (last week) discussion shows some improvement (though still -ve). A-3 and A-4 have predominantly kept the days cooler.
Comparison with previous years-. In 2010, the first 45c touched on 10th. April, and on the same day Nagpur was 44c, Delhi 42.8c. Soon on 15 th April 2010, Nawabshah (Pakistan) soared to 47c, Simla to 28.2c on 16th, Ganganagar, Akola and Hissar to to 46c.
As on 20th. April 2014, the core pressure in the seasonal Low, in the Thar Desert region is at 1006 mb, though not prominently formed yet. Could hardly be called a “developing” Seasonal Low.
1) Initial forming off the East African Coast, has started from below the equator and the weak SE flow towards Eastern Africa can be seen.They are becoming organized.
Indicator: -ve (last year was normal)
5.But the Pre Monsoon Low in the Bay is still elusive. As discussed, we should normally see a low sometime after the 15th. of April. The high pressure region in the Bay, at sea level, no longer prevails.
This parameter, is unfavourable compared to last year. See comparitive SST Maps with Last Year