Tuesday, January 24, 2012

SHOULD WEATHER FORECASTERS NEED PERMISSION FROM THE GOVERNMENT?

This Law in S.Africa, I understand is considered as wrong Forecasting can be dangerous and damaging to the economy.


But, then, who and in which field can anyone give an accurate forecast. Can any financial wizard or top notch financial institution with hundreds of employees studying the economy and Company workings give an accurate estimate of the stock market ? Impossible ! In fact, most of the stock market forecasts are getting blown away.I actually once told a friend who is in the stock market -"My weather forecasting for tomorrow is much more accurate than your forecast of tomorrow's stocks"


And remember. there are thousands of small time investors who are depending (wrongly) on their stock investments. They can be absolutely mis-led with wrong estimates and guidance.
Can a doctor never go wrong in his diagnosis or health estimate ? And that too can be very very crtical to one's life !


But, as a citizen of a free country, one must be free to express his views in any field whatsoever.


As far as weather is concerned, the met office, and the met man does get the occasional flak. With a sneer we hear "Havn;t we heard that before ? "


Fact is, meteorology can never achieve the kind of exact precision which is the hallmark of other sciences. The blame for this lies not with us weathermen, but the nature of the object that we study. A closed system involves a limited range of variables, each of which can be controlled or replicated in laboratory conditions. Much of ordinary physics is a good example of it.


An open system, on the other hand, deals with realities and variables that are large and complex, and under constant change. None of which can be recreated, in laboratories. The subject-matter of meteorology - Sub-continental weather systems - is an instance of the latter. Denied the benefit of real-time experiments, meteorology depends on modelling and computer simulation for its research.


Today'Weather below....





Today's Weather:
J-4 arrives as a Secondary low over Sindh. As expected, some regions of Sindh recieved light rsains pushing up the night temperatures to some extent .(Point No. 2 of Vagaries' weekly forecast.
On Tuesday, light rains were recorded along the Sindh coast. Nokkundi measured 1.5 mms and Karachi and Sukkur both got traces of rains.Karachi saw a low of 12c (estimated was 15c) and Sukkur minimum was 8c (estimated 9c).


J-4 will enter India on Wednesday. Expected rainfall will be along the forecasted line.The rainfallfrom the system may get pushed Northwards by a UAC , which has formed over the Vidharbha/Chattisgarh region.


J-4 will precipitate rains in Kashmir and H.P. Cloudy weather and light rain could be expected in Punjab and Chandigarh on wed/Thurs. But Delhi region will be partly cloudy and no rains. 


The UAC may bring light rains to Vidharbha and Chatiisgarh wed/Thurs. Rise in night temperatures for Nagpur.


Mumbai will be partly cloudy with a substantial rise in night temperatures.
Rise in night temperatures for Pune.

5 comments:

Rajan Alexander said...

Yes Rajesh. Its awful. South Africa launched a Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) Programme funded by European Commission. Norwegian government and I think the World Bank during the recent Durban Climate meet. This step has invited a lot of flak within African, particularly with the South African region. Now the whole focus of CSA is to ostensibly to adapt to global warming. Unfortunately, the "climate" not cooperating - temperatures are below average in South Africa.

My South African friends tell me, this was one of the main reasons for the government to introduce a ban on private weather forecasting

NT said...

Dear Rajeshbhai, while I don't have the exact text and the reasons behind the law in SA and hence it would be difficult to just dismiss it completely or agree with it. I think the broader question that needs to be answered is about Accountability. Any profession that needs to be taken seriously should be accountable, in the case of metereology that accountability at the least has to come from institutions which run on public money e.g. IMD in India is being run by the tax payers money and hence IMD is accountable to the public in India just as any other department ideally should be (one can always argue that no department in India is, but then that's a different matter). Agreed that metereology is complex and it is impossible to be correct all the time, yet it needs to be an improving science. Currently IMD forecasts are a butt of jokes and caricatures. A private forecaster may not be accountable since he is not charging anyone for his forecasts, if you like the forecasts you are welcome, else you may not rely on it. However, here too, if the metereological community needs to be taken seriously it is important that the reliability of what is discussed improves with the passage of time.

junaid said...

i totally agree wid NT redarding imd forecasts,,even if we leave the monsoon forecasts,,,even the daily temps forecasts for mumbai r also unreliable nd false,,,during these winter season i have many times noticed that wen the imd predicts a rise in temps for mumbai,,the opposite happens and vice versa,,,while vagaries forecasts turns quite close to accurate ,,and also has a very small error coefficient..

Anonymous said...

what happened to your weekly forecasting??Seems to have skipped this week..hope to see you soon...

rajesh said...

Rajan: Yes, could be some plan with that in mind...you never know, GW is big business !
NT:yes, NT, but thats exactly the point. If priavte forecasters are wrong or mis leading, people will stop trusting them. But there is no reason to ban the activity as such.

Anonymous: what is put up is the
"Vagaries' Sunday Weather Forecast for the Week 22nd to 29th January"
Its put up every Sunday, and is covered till next Sunday.. the last weekly forecast put up on 22nd, its covered till the 29th. Next will be up Sunday..dont think i've missed any -:))