Friday, January 13, 2012

As J-2 approaches the sub-continent, the night temperatures have shown a marginal rise. For India, the nights have become above normal starting from the extreme west.(Map).


In Pakistan, though the Northern regions are still showing cooler temperatures, the South and Central regions are slightly warmer. Karachi has risen to 13c and Sukkar to 10c.


J-2 will precipitate over Northern Pakistan, areas above the 30N line, from Saturday. Heavier in the Northern most regions, and tapering intensity Southwards.

On Saturday, the North Indian States of Kashmir and H.P. would get snow/rains, and cloudy in Delhi, Punjab and Haryana. Heavier intensity would occur on Sunday in Kashmir and H.P. Snowfall would be in the range of 40-60 cms in Gulmarg, Pahalgam and Lahaul regions of H.P. Srinagar can expect snow too, as the day's maximum are below freezing since the last 5 days.

But, J-2 , it seems has a shorter life span, of just about 2/3 days. I would expect Pakistan to be clear from Monday 16th, and the North Indian regions would go dry from Tuesday. A prevailing "high" is likely to dis-integrate the system, allowing just about a day's precipitation in Utteranchal. Nepal would get its share only in the western regions. Kathmandu would be just about cloudy on Monday/Tuesday.

Westerly gusts on Sunday could bring clouds to Karachi.
Strong W winds are likely to sweep the lower Sindh (Pakistan) on Sunday 14th. From Monday, the winds will diverge to NW, bringing down the night temperatures.
Kutch and Saurashtra region of India will be swept by strong NW winds on Sunday and Monday.
Strong Northerly winds from Monday will bring a fall in temperatures in Northern plains of India, including Delhi.

Mumbai:

Friday 13th: Prevailing easterlies will keep the day temperature above 31c. Night will be around 16c (S'Cruz) and 18c at Colaba,

Saturday 14th: Very favourable winds for "Uttran" kite flying ! Though slightly dull in the morning, Winds changing to N/NW by afternoon, will bring the day temperature down to 29c, and night will be constant.

Sunday/Monday: Should see a fall in night temperatures to 13c at S'Cruz, possibly 12c on Tuesday morning (Monday night) . Day will be windy and cool.

Pune:

Day temperatures will rise to 30c, due to easterly winds for a couple of days.

Expect the night temperatures to be around 12c till Sunday. Monday /Tuesday could see a fall to 9c.



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