Wednesday, January 18, 2012
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La Niña conditions remain.The Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 regions of the Pacific show NO CHANGE in the SSt in the last 15 days.The regions are at -0.9c below normal.
Indications of a mild La-Nina still persist. La Niña remains established over the Pacific Ocean,
Though some indicators have weakened over the past fortnight. Atmospheric indicators of La Niña, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloudiness over the equatorial Pacific Ocean have shifted towards more neutral values,implying some weakening of the La Niña event.
However, most models suggesting an end of the event during the coming spring season.
SOI Parameter:Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
As on 16th Jan, the latest SOI value was +12.8. Though down from 13.2,the last value, it is still above the La-Nina parameter.
MJO factor is weak currently ,right from the Western Pacific region upto the Bay equatorialregions. No signs of any strengthening of MJO next 15 days.
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