Monday, May 31, 2010

During last week,the observed progress of the Monsoon has been tardy and slow. We were expecting a slow movement Northwards after moving upto Karnataka, but, the progress slowed down just after the monsoon had reached the Southern tip of Kerala.
Now, the reasons could be attributed to the succesive movements of the W.Ds in the north, and the resultant slow de-forming of the ridge in the Arabian Sea last week.
The latest development, 94A, a low pressure area,now shows the churning of the Western branch of the monsoon. The Arabian Sea has livened up.
But what can the rain hungry Western Indian region expect now?
There are 2 different estimates for the system.
1.Some models, predict 94A, now at the low pressure stage, to strengthen and become a depression. The forecasted movement is in the North-Northwest direction. By the 4th./5th, it is predicted to move towards the Oman coast, and then fizzle out.
Resultantly, only moderate rain, could be expected along the West coast of India from the 2nd. upto the 6th. of June. But, as the system moves away from the Indian coast, rainfall would diminish in Kerala. If this option prevalis,a lot of moisture and clouds could be sucked into the depression from the Arabian Sea effecting the rains along Western India.

2. Other models, including ECMWF forecasts 94A to develop into a depression, and move North. It is estimated to hit the Gujarat coast by the 5th.
The rain result would be good rains along the west coast of India, and into Gujarat's Saurashtra region from the 3rd.
With these 2 options open, we will monitor the system and check its behaviour.

Personnaly,I would go in for a mixture of the 2 options.A re-curving option after moving towards Oman. With a W.D. approaching around the 3rd, the system would re-curve towards the Northeast around the time the W.D. moves along Pakistan. The land striking region in this case would be near the India/Pakistan Border region.
In this case, the Monsoon would initially cover Kerala, and maybe South coastal Karnataka, and then weaken to some extent till the "to be" depression fizzles out.

Highest in Asia on 30th. May: 48c Nawabshah (Pakistan).
Highest in India: Chandrapur: 46.6c.

Mumbai today: Colaba 35.8c, Santa Cruz: 34.8c.
Due to the depression forming in the Arabian Sea, Mumbai can expect Pre-Monsoon showers on the 2nd. Some pre-monsoon rainfall can be expected in Mumbai thereafter till the 6th. But weatherwise, it will get stuffy and humid once the pre-monsson rains commence.

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