Sunday, May 16, 2010

Monsoon Watch - 8
In the Bay sector, the cross-equatorial wind is building across the East Indian Ocean with clouds massing around the Bay Islands. Strong South-West winds have suddenly developed in the South Andaman Sea, and the clouds are seen building up in the South Seas. Gauging the the wind speed, we can expect the Monsoon to strike the South Andamans by 18th, and the Middle Andamans by the 20th. ( 5 days behind schedule).
Onward Monsoon progress Northwards,will have to be monitored.

In this sequence, we now have the second part. A weak low has formed in the South Central Bay on the 15th. viz.93B. According to weather forecasts, international and NCMRWF, it is likely to get stronger,and move West. -- An unusual direction for a depression to move in this initial Pre-Monsoon stage !-- By the 20th. it should strike the Chennai region as a depression, say of around 996 mb at the core.
Naturally, heavy rains are expected as a result along T.N. coast from the18th. evening. By 20th. Chennai and regions around the Northern T.N area could recieve upto 50-70 mms in 24hrs.  The system is then expected to weaken, and cross into T.N. and onwards into Karnataka. On the 21st.and 22nd. May, Karnataka and Kerala can expect rain as the system weakens into a low.
Now, as the system crosses the T.N. coast around the 20th, winds from the Arabian Sea would be attracted towards the system.Hence,we can expect heavy rains on 20th, 21st in Sri Lanka and the advancement of the Monsoon into Sri Lanka.  
I visualise the Monsoon current to be pulled into Kerala, only if the system re-emerges into the Arabian Sea. Even as a weak low in the Arabian Sea, it can pull the Monsoon current into the Kerala coast, and this could be around the 24th, as per the schedule of the movement of the system crossing the East coast.
It is pertinent to mention here, that the European Model does not estimate for the low to cross the T.N.coast at all.

 
 The result of strong winds blowing Northwards along the Somali coast, has resulted in the Sea temperatures dropping off the Somali Coast (Somali Current). As the current gets stronger, the Sea temperature will drop to as low as 20c, and that is what creates the huge cloud mass forming over Central Arabian Sea. Today, we see some of this formation, and the appearance of 92A, west of the Maldives.I do not read much into this weak system today, and expect it to be stationary for a week or so.
But , international weather forecast a  tropical storm formation for the Arabian Sea after a week, say after 24th. But I would wait and watch, rather than risk a storm forecast today.
 
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Today's Readings (15th. May):
Highest in Asia: Nawabshah (Pakistan): 48c.
Highest in India: Nagpur: 45.9c, Khajuraho: 45.8c.
Hottest Nights: New Delhi (Palam):32.2c, Jaipur:31.8c,Jodhpur:31.7c,New Delhi (S'Jung):31.3c, Raipur:30.9c,Gondia:30.6c.

Mumbai on Saturday: (Colaba) 36.0c, Mumbai (S'Cruz):34.0c.
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