Another sign of the trough going southwards is the decrease in rains in the foothills ,and a rise in temperatures in north India.(Gangapur was 42c today).
Rains in northern Pakistan too will lessen and as the trough's western end moves down, some rains may come to central regions. For the south of Pakistan, the rains will arrive with the westerly movement of the bay low, or a sudden dip in the western end of the monsoon trough.
Now, as per our last assessment, the next stage should be the immediate formation of a low in the bay. IMD has estimaed this to form by the 27th. Once this is in place, the complete central region and northern peninsula states should get good rainfall. Yesterday, a heartening feature was a solid 102mm of rain in "rain starved " Solapur.
The rain map as on 23rd.July defines the "north/south" divide mentioned earliar. The diagonal line division of the excess/normal/deficient regions is clear in the map. The overall rain in the country has now slipped into the negative, -2 %.
It is now hoped the deficient areas get some rain with the current wave of rain coming.