In my last blog, the elusive system from the bay was discussed, and I had thought, it could be expected to form in the begining of this week(monday21st.). well, it is still elusive, as on today,21st. The monsoon trough today has its western end in north Pakistan, runs along U.P., then thru west Bengal runs thru Nagaland with its its eastern end in the north-eastern states.
As a result, we have rains continuing in north Pakistan. But the rains are yet to begin in the south of Pakistan, with Karachi having got only traces of rain for the season as of today.
Rains today are good in U.P. Bengal and the north-eastern states of India.
However, the rains still play truant in the rain starved states south of M.P./Rajasthan level.
Now, for some hope of positive developments.
According to the international forecast models, A system could form in the central bay, around 15N, by this weekend, around 25th, and progress towards the Orissa/A.P. coast. It may not strenghten enough to move inland. But, I think it can bring and pull the monsoon trough southwards towards its normal position, that is across central India.
Consequently, as the low forms in the bay, by Friday,25th. we can expect increased rainfall along the west coast, specially the Karnataka/Maharashtra coast and in Mahableshwar and Lonavala.
On the trough taking its normal position, rains can resume in central India and the interior regions of Maharashtra and the southern /central peninsula from Sunday/Monday (27th./28th.).
Hence, after the 25th.,and before the month end, it is possible to see a revival of the monsoon in the effected states of Gujarat,Maharashtra, A.P., Karnataka and to some extent Kerala.
As the western end of the trough will be over south Pakistan by the 28th. of this month, sindh and Karachi can expect its first rains by then.