The Hong Kong Observatory has declared June 2008 its wettest month ever on record, with records dating back to 1884. Up to midday on Monday June 30th, the total rainfall recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory was 1,346.1mm (53 inches) breaking the previous record set in May 1889. The previous rainfall record was 1,241.1mm (49 inches).

This record was in spite of the fact that there was only 1 typhoon in June. Most of the rains was due to strong south-westerlies.

With no typhoon still in sight, a high pressure has set in over the HK area, thus a let up in rain.

But with the above scenario, the sub continent will be bereft of lows, at least for the next 8 days. Hence no organised system in sight from the bay for the next 8 days till the 11th. July.The image alongside shows the scanty rain during the day on the 4th. in the sub continent, baring the north-east.

The result, W.D.'s are forming in a row, and keeping the monsoon trough far north than its normal position. In fact, today, the IMD has stated the eastern of the trough has moved northwards from the bay position towards Shillong. The result for the next week: moderate rains for the states of U.P.,Bihar ,H.P. and north Bengal regions.And, increased rain in the north-eastern states. All these along the monsoon trough line.

Subdued rains will prevail in M.P.,Gujarat, Maharashtra,Karnatak,Kerala and most of the peninsula regions. Hence deficit regions may cover a wider area this week over last week (right).

Vinson (Business Line) has explained the revival of the MJO over the Indian Ocean,and the Indian Peninsula, from the 10th. of July. If this occurs, it could give the much needed revival to the central and southern peninsula regions. These developments have to be watched.

kapadias@gmail.com