At last the parched regions of south Pakistan are scheduled to get some rain in the next two days from monday.
The "God sent"upper air circulation has moved across the border into the sindh area. Though short lived, this will surely introduce the first rains into the region (Karachi included). As the monsoon trough will now remain south at its normal position, with its western end into sindh, the south/central Pakistan areas will continue to get cloudy weather with fair showers into the first week of August.
The upper air circulation forming over M.P. on Thursday (25th), rapidly moved across westwards, and at the time of writing, on Monday evening, lies on the Gujarat/sindh border.
In India, the much needed dry regions of Gujarat, Maharashtra and north A.P. got the required relief by way of fairly good showers on the weekend. Though the interiors of Maharashtra required much more than the 20-25mms of rain it got per day on Saturday/Sunday (26th./27th.), it was a matter of the rains actually "starting" for the season in areas of marathwada and south Maharashtra.
The north Maharashtra coast recieved good rains, with Mumbai getting a drenching with about 470mms in 3 days upto Monday evening. Roha was highest with 370mms in 24hrs. ended Monday morning.
In the northern regions of the sub continent, it remained fairly devoid of rains as expected.
The suddenly formed upper air system, at 500-700hpa, may have delayed the formation of the low in the bay by a couple of days.
It can now be expected to form in the bay by the 31st. ,and move westwards into the states of central India. The system could be expected to get to some intensity, as this year, the bay has not produced a seasonal depression since the 18th. of June, and June/July are normally expected to throw up at least 2 per month.
First week of August will see the precipitation of good rains in Orissa, M.P.,Maharashtra and Gujarat.