1. The monsoon trough has now "snuggled" into the Himalayan foothills. The eastern end runs thru Bangladesh into the north-east states. Ridge of high pressure seen in south-east Arabian Sea.
2. The rain will therefore be restricted to the states of Punjab, U.P.,Jharkhand,Bihar,Bengal and north-east. Flooding danger in east U.P.
3. Remaining south/central regions will be comparitively dry.
4. Deficit has spread to the west coast south of konkan,extreme deficit seen in Marathwada,adjoining A.P.,Kerala.
5. No emerging low seen in the bay till Friday,at least. Hence no change in rainfall pattern in affected areas till Friday/Saturday. Warmer conditions expected in Maharashtra/Gujarat, Karnataka and interior A.P. on Tuesday/Wednesday (15th./16th.).
6. As western end of the trough runs into northPakistan, rain to continue in northern regions of Pakistan. Central and south may remain dry thru this week.
7. Abnormally long period of break condition due to inactive bay. Resultant of dull west Pacific typhoon season and active W.D. season in the northern most regions.